Teaching You How to #Win – Matchups to Exploit/Top Over-Under/Heavy Favorites #NFL Week 8

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Heaviest Favorites

As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:

  • St. Louis -9.5 over San Francisco
  • New England -9.5 over Miami
  • Carolina -7.5 over Indianapolis

This week is pretty interesting from a matchup perspective; but the top two games for the favorites this week are the Rams over the 49ers and the Pats over the Dolphins, both by 9.5 points. I don’t believe that either game will be that lopsided this week so I would take the points and both dogs in these games.

The Dolphins are playing some inspired football and tonight we will get to see if that continues against the leagues top team, the Patriots. The Rams are difficult to predict, although we were on their D last week and all they did was put up the most points for that position. Kaepernick is the second most sacked QB in the league and the Rams D can get after the QB so look for 7 sacks from this defense yet again. The last matchup is a trap game in my opinion. You have the Panthers playing well but have really only played the Seahawks and the Colts, who have been flat out terrible so far this season. I think Luck gets back to form in this game and they score a late TD to beat the Panthers 21 – 20. So I’m on all the ‘dogs. Now for some players to consider in each of these matchups in daily fantasy:

  • Greg Olsen
  • Tom Brady
  • St. Louis Defense

Top Overall Game Over/Under

The game with the most expected points this weekend is the San Diego Chargers on the road against the Baltimore Ravens. Look it makes sense when you consider that the Ravens pass defense has given up the most yards and points to opposing QB’s and Rivers has had over 850 yards in his last 2 games combined. You take that with Flacco putting up strong numbers and the Chargers defense cannot stop the opposing RB, giving up at least 1 touchdown to each of their last 5 opposing RB’s. So this is a game to consider a stack and take Rivers, Forsett, Woodhead, Smith Sr. and then either Gates or Green, depending on who starts – this half of a lineup should get you 130+ fantasy points this week!


Matchups to Exploit

Here we breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it’s because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.

Let’s make this simple: the stats come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.

  • Passing Yards is the New York Giants at 294.46 yards
  • Rushing Yards is Tennessee at 137.46 yards
  • Overall is St. Louis at 418.77

We gave you both Gurley and Diggs last week, along with the Rams D and Doug Martin. If you played those guys – then you had 111.6 just from this group.  If you played Brady and Gronk, then you were certain to cash. DiRTCanon A.I.This week, you should consider Drew Brees, but I suggest you stick to Rivers. The Chargers cannot stop anyone on defense so they are constantly behind and Rivers will chuck it all game. On the rushing side of the house, DC*3PO is really on Bell this weekend or you can stick with the hot hand of DeVonta Freeman. Our Odds section suggests that you look at Alfred Blue this weekend and with Foster out, he is very cheap but I’m not on that at all. I like Chris Johnson against the Browns, who have given up a 100 yard rusher in every game this season, even against the Broncos Hillman lit them up. Overall, I like the stack in the Baltimore and San Diego game.  Check back on Sunday morning as I will reveal our expert picks for this weekends games!


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What You Need To Know for #TNF and Other Stuff

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1. A Dolphin’s Tale?

Maybe the only thing to worry about – besides your lineup – is if Tom Brady takes a cheap shot.  The NFL Media and the Tennessee coaching staff went nuts on the low hit on Mariota, and it’s not inconceivable that Man Campbell hasn’t already ordered the “Code Red”!  Any team that Ndamukong $uh is on – you must keep a weathered eye…


2. When the Mountaineers Come Calling

7:30p EST FS1 – WV @ TCU
Trevone Boykin begins his push for the Heisman tonight.  Sure they haven’t played anyone yet and yeah, they get three opponents next month that are all in the top 14 currently – but the kid is fun to watch.  So in front of a primetime audience on the “FS1” at 7:30p EST check out the #2 guy in total offense and #5 in passing offense – because the only way this guy has a shot is to be undefeated.


3. #23 and Climbing

5:00p EST ESPN – UNC @ Pitt
Also tonight is the other college football game on that other network that sounds like mental telepathy from a sorority girl when she wears her Uggs to tight.  5p ESt on ESPN, UNC visits Heinz Field to take on a surprisingly good Panthers team from Pitt.  Nice job so far from new coach Pat Narduzzi who’s teams’ only loss is to Iowa.  Lots of coach speak will determine the outcome, such as: Special Teams will be important and who wins the turnover battle so should come out ahead as long as they score more points than the other guy.


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4. Nobody Knows You When You’re Down…0-2

Johnny Cueto tossed a complete-game two-hitter for the Royals as they defeated the Mets, 7-1, in Game Two of the World Series. Two weeks ago, Cueto pitched Kansas City into the ALCS by defeating the Astros in Game Five of the ALDS, allowing only two hits in eight innings. The only other pitchers who have had more than one postseason outing in their careers of eight or more innings in which they allowed no more than two hits are Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens.


 

5. Few Games In – C’Mon Man!

Are The Rockets Doomed – Is Ricky Rubio already an All-Star PG – Is New Orleans turr-able – Is Jahlil Okafor the next one – and finally, is this the Knicks’ time?!  All these overreactions and more…

Source: Biggest overreactions to first batch of NBA games


6. Vlade-dadi We Like To Parde

It has been…an interesting time for the Kings. No one knows what the hell is going on (including those inside of the organization!). For a quick recap:

Last Season: The Kings rushed out to lead the Pacific Division, home of the NBA champion Warriors, before the floor fell out from underneath the team. Star center DeMarcus Cousins was diagnosed with viral meningitis and was sidelined for more than a month. The Kings faltered without him, and their record fell to 11-13. And then the Kings’ Chernobyl of a season began to crumble when owner Vivek Ranadive fired head coach Mike Malone, who was not only a favorite of the players, but had Sacramento ready to play. Mike Malone was fired after only 24 games, and according to Adrian Wojnarowski, the move created a sense of contempt among Kings players, especially Cousins who loved Malone and his system. The Kings then later fired interim head coach Tyrone Corbin, and hired George Karl to coach the team after the All Star Break.

Source: House of Cards: The Kings, Jokers and Chaos in Sacramento


7. The Kobe Bryant Experience

Kobe Bryant, who is older than hell, crankier than hell, and shackled to a misshapen Lakers team, looked better than he has in years tonight as his Lakers fell to the Timberwolves at home 112-111. This game was stuffed full of cool shit: the two teams’ tribute to the recently passed Flip Saunders; Nick Young hitting a half-court leaner to end the first quarter; the debuts of Karl-Anthony Towns, Julius Randle (his 14 minutes last season don’t count), and D’Angelo Russell; Kevin Garnett yapping at people; and Ricky Rubio dropping 28 points and 14 assists. But most of all, there was Kobe.

Source: Old Man Kobe And The Young Lakers Are Fun As Hell 

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Teaching You How to #Win – Week 8 Absolute’s #NFL

name of site - hunter thompson styleWeek 8 Absolutes 

Absolute Must Have

We are now entering the final week of the second quarter of the season and we now have some established players that should be considered each week in daily fantasy. Obviously, Tom Brady tops this list and he does have our highest Must Have selection of the week but considering most of you don’t include the Thursday game player’s in your contest selections, our Absolute Must Have for this week on DraftKings is DeAndre Hopkins. He comes in with a projection of 22.13 this week and off an unusually low performance last week as most of the balls went to Washington in garbage time, look for this to change back to having Hopkins be the man in Houston again. On the FanDuel side, we have Joe Flacco. His projection for this week is 23.56 with a plus 6.91 in the Projection2Spend ratio, which means he is high value and should outperform his cost for this week. Did you know that San Diego has given up at least 25 fantasy points to their opposing QB in each of their last 3 games? You should consider him for this week.

***Reminder Must Have’s are salaries that are $7,800 and higher


Absolute Notable

Our Absolute #Notable for this week on FanDuel is Josh McCown. He comes in with a projection of 18.62 for this week and is still on the extremely cheap side. That said, he did leave the game with an injury last week so his status for this week is questionable. You should check back on Sunday morning and come to our Injury Breakdown section here for all of your injury and impacted player analysis. On the DraftKings side of the house, we have Steve Smith Sr. He actually comes in as our top projected player for this week, largely due to San Diego giving up a ton to the WR1 position lately. Additionally, Smith Sr., had 186 yards and 2 touchdowns in his only home game this season. His projection of 31 should not be taken too lightly, as he should light up the Bolts this weekend.

***Reminder Notables are salaries between $5,200 and $7,800


Absolute Sleeper

fanduelFor FanDuel our Absolute #Sleeper this week is Conner Barth, with a projection of 14.83. He is the kicker to have for the week, just keep in mind that the Falcons defense is keeping opponents out of the end zone this season so look for some field goal opportunities here. 

For DraftKings we have Josh McCown, coming in with a projection of 18.22. We have already stated that McCown is hurt so be careful here. If you want to know my personal opinion, I’m all over Chris Johnson this week. He is the leading back for the Cardinals and they get to play against the worst run defense in the league, Cleveland, this week. Look for him to have a huge day and he only costs $4,600. Another player to consider is Stephon Diggs for Minnesota. We had him again last week and all he did was get us 26.7 points, his price tag only jumped up $600 to a total of $4,800 this week, he is almost a must play.

***Reminder that Sleepers are salaries under $5,200

Get your full FanDuel Absolutes report for week 7 here.

Ger your full DraftKings Absolutes report for week 7 here.

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