Teaching You How to #Win – #NFL Week7 Matchups to Exploit/Heavy Favorites/Top Over-Under

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Heaviest Favorites

As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:

  • Arizona -10 over Baltimore
  • New England -10 over the Jets
  • St. Louis -7 over Cleveland

Let’s start at the bottom and work our way up this list. We have St. Louis vs. Cleveland with the Rams being favorites by 7 points. I personally think this is crazy. Cleveland is better than people think and McCown is playing very well. This game will most likely come down to a field goal so I like the Browns and the points in this one. New England over the Jets but by 10, are you certain? I like the Jets and the points in this one simply because I believe the Jets have an improved offensive strategy and with that defense they should never lose by 10 points. That said, the Patriots are on a tear right now and this could be a statement game for them to the rest of the AFC but I see this one NE 27 NYJ 23. Last we have the Arizona Cardinals and the Baltimore Ravens. This is our Monday Night Special and the Ravens come in with the worst passing defense in the league, while the Cardinals have a top 5 passing attack. That doesn’t bode well for the Ravens, look for the Cardinals to win this game ARI 34 and BAL 24. That means give me the push baby. Some players to consider in each of these matchups are as follows:

 

  • Carson Palmer
  • Rob Gronkowski
  • St. Louis Defense

Top Overall Game Over/Under

This week we have the Cardinals and Ravens as our top Over/Under for the week 7. This shouldn’t come as a surprise with Baltimore giving up tons of points this season, mostly in the passing game. The over is currently at 48 points. I have already stated that I see this game being 34 – 24 with the Cards coming out on top so I’m on the over in this one. I could see Palmer going for over 400 yards in consecutive games, while Steve Smith continues his career ending season with another solid 115 yards and 1 TD. The real question in this game is which receiver should you take for the Cardinals. The answer to that question is both, take Fitzgerald and John Brown because they might both be huge plays. It’s always nice to have a few guys on Monday night when playing daily fantasy, as the winner of the main contests has had at least one guy playing on Monday night in 15 of the last 16 weeks. So a Baltimore/Arizona stack might be something to consider, you just need to confirm the status of Forsett.


Matchups to Exploit

In this segment, I am going to breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it is because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.

Let’s make this simple to the stats as they come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.

  • Passing Yards is the Dallas Cowboys at 308.4 yards
  • Rushing Yards is St. Louis at 139.96 yards
  • Overall is Minnesota at 410.88

Last week I was on Andrews from the Titans but he clearly wasn’t the guy as Miami just steam rolled the Titans last week. He might get another look from me this week as the Titans play against the Falcons, although the Falcons have the #1 Rush defense in terms of yards against so I would only consider Andrews on FanDuel this week as he will probably get at least one touchdown. Now for this weeks statsDiRTCanon A.I., we have the Cowboys projected to give up the most passing yards. Eli is coming off a bad game and these two teams typically put up points against each other. He would be my QB play if I wasn’t on Palmer but he might sneak in on one of my later lineups this week. Moving onto the rushing attack for week 7. We show the Rams giving up 139 yards, which would mean Duke Johnson. Both DC*3PO and I are on their opponent, Todd Gurley. The Browns are giving up the most rushing yards per game this season and Jeff Fisher has already shown he wants Gurley to get 30 carries a game. Gurley is still cheap so I would strongly consider him this week. Last we have Minnesota and what can I say, they play Detroit. Stafford and Megatron did show up on the top lineup last week so could it happen, Yes, will it happen, NO! The only guy I like in this contest is Stephon Diggs, lookout for another solid 20 point performance for him on DraftKings.  Check back on Sunday morning as I will reveal our expert picks for this weekends games!


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