What You Need To Know This #NFL Sunday

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Probably not a good idea to have this on TV

1. And You Will Know My Name is the Lord…

The world throws curveballs, will try to kick you when your down and constantly changes the rules – just be a Saint – or Ben Watson – either was fine last night.  From the dust-bin of football history, Ben Watson re-emerged Jimmy Graham(cracka) style to haul in 127yds and a TD – assisting the Falcons in beating themselves 31-21 last night.  Alanis Morissette must have been in attendance because wasn’t it IRONIC the Saints scored a touchdown on a blocked punt?! – I could watch that over and over…

The Falcons were not going undefeated, even the die-hard-est Dirty-Bird knew that – but watching that game as a fan of Atlanta, you have to wonder how many times they are going to self-destruct this season?  You can’t keep being behind in the 4th qtr and ALWAYS come back.  The Falcons are not the best team in the league, and the Saints are not the worst – even if both of them have looked like it at times.  The Falcons could be 2-4 and the Saints could be 4-2, it’s just the way the game goes.  The Falcons have a good team and will still win the division – the Saints needed all the energy and emotion from the crowd to play their hearts out, just to get a 10pt victory – they have a long way to go to contend.  But, for one night it was like the Thunderdome again.

p.s. Is it to much too ask to get a kicker and can anyone slow down Devonta Freeman – CRIPES


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2. ‘Cause Knowing is Half the Battle!

#NFL Week 6 Trends

  • Since 2000, teams that have fired their coach during the season are 6-19 SU and 8-17 ATS in the next game.
    • Games Matching this Criteria: Dolphins (+2.5) @ Titans
  • All-time, teams that start 0-5 and are favorites in their next game are 4-7 ATS
    • Games Matching this Criteria: Lions (-3) vs. Bears
  • All-time, teams that start 4-0 and are favorites of a touchdown or more in the next game are 14-23-1 (38%) ATS
    • Games Matching this Criteria: Patriots (-8) vs. Colts
  • AZ -3 @ PIT With Carson Palmer, the Cardinals as road favorites are 6-1 against-the-spread.
  • BAL -2.5 @ SF All-time, road favorites in San Francisco are 29-35-1 against-the-spread.
  • BUF +3.5 vs. CIN All-time, the Bills against undefeated teams with 4 or more wins are 9-6 ATS.
  • CAR +7 @ SEA Cam Newton is 0-4 straight-up and against-the-spread coming out of a bye week.
  • CHI +3 @ DET Jay Cutler as a road dog with the Bears against the NFC North is 2-7 against-the-spread.
  • CIN -3.5 @ BUF All-time, teams that have won five games in a row and are road favorites are 43-53-1 against-the-spread.
  • CLE +4 vs. DEN In the last ten games as home underdogs, the Browns are 7-3 against-the-spread.
  • DEN -4 @ CLE Peyton Manning as a road favorite with the Broncos is 15-7 against-the-spread.
  • DET -3 vs. CHI All-time, teams that start 0-5 are 43-34-1 against-the-spread in the next game. The Lions covered back in 2008 when they started 0-5 as well.
  • GB -10 vs. SD Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, teams that have covered in 5 straight games and are home favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-8 against-the-spread in the next game.
  • HOU -1.5 @ JAX Following a Thursday night game, the Texans are 1-5 straight-up and 2-4 against-the-spread.
  • IND +8 vs. NE As an underdog, Andrew Luck is 12-11 straight-up but against the Patriots he is 0-4 straight-up and against-the-spread.
  • JAX +1.5 vs. HOU In the last 20 games as home underdogs of less than a field goal, Jacksonville is 8-12 against-the-spread.
  • KC +3.5 @ MIN The Chiefs are 8-2 against-ths-sread in their last ten games as road favorites.
  • MIA +2.5 @ TEN All-time, the Dolphins coming off a bye and as road underdogs are 7-4-1 against-the-spread.
  • MIN -3.5 vs. KC Teddy Bridgewater as a home favorite is 4-1-1 against-the-spread.
  • NE -8 @ IND Tom Brady is 3-7 against-the-spread in his last ten games as a road favorite of a touchdown or more.
  • NYG +3.5 @ PHI Eli Manning as a road underdog in Philly is 6-2-1 against-the-spread.
  • NYJ -6 vs. WAS All-time, the Jets as home favorites are 71-111-5 (39%) against-the-spread.
  • PHI -3.5 vs. NYG The Eagles against the Giants on Monday Night Football are 5-0 straight-up and against-the-spread.
  • PIT +3 vs. AZ In the last ten games as home underdogs dating back to 2005, the Steelers are 6-3-1 ATS.
  • SD +10 @ GB Teams that last played on Monday Night and then are road underdogs in Green Bay are 5-9 against-the-spread.
  • SEA -7 vs. CAR Following a loss, Russell Wilson is 9-5 against-the-spread.
  • SF +2.5 vs. BAL All-time, when the 49ers have lost four games in a row San Francisco is 4-11-1 against-the-spread in the next game.
  • TEN -2.5 vs. MIA All-time, the Titans facing an opponent coming off a bye is 17-8-1 against-the-spread.
  • WAS +6 @ NYJ All-time, road underdogs in New York of a field goal or more are 83-53-5 (61%) against-the-spread.

DC*3PO’s PixDiRTCanon A.I.

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Teaching You How to #Win – Toughest QB Matchup/Top QB’s #NFL Week 6

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Toughest QB Matchup

This week we have Russell Wilson as having the most difficult matchup of the weekend. This shouldn’t come as a surprise given that Wilson has been sacked the most in the NFL this season. Russell Wilson_headshots_195x270Carolina is coming in off a bye week but the Seahawks are at home this weekend. That usually proves for a good game from Wilson but I remind you, he was sacked 6 times and should have lost to the Detroit Lions in their last home game.  Our #2 matchup for the QB this week is Blake Bortles. The Texans defense is usually a tough matchup for any QB and most wouldn’t know this but it hasn’t been the passing game that has beat the Texans, it has been the run game. Look for Yeldon to get plenty of work and I do expect Bortles to have a descent fantasy week. He should get you around 17 fantasy points. The last QB for this segment is Cam Newton.  We have already covered the fact that the Seahawks are at home this week, combine that with the barely NFL talent wide receiving core for the Panthers, this game looks to be another 13 – 10 type of contest. Shy away from both QB’s but look to play either defense in this game as that is where the points are going to come from.  Newton will not get his average FPPG this week and will most likely come in less than Bortles at around 15 fantasy points.


Tom Brady_headshots_250QB Selections

Our top 3 QB’s for this week in order of projected score is Tom Brady #1, Aaron Rodgers #2 and Andy Dalton #3. Okay, by now you have to have put Brady on at least one lineup, so I think we are covered there.  Let’s talk about Aaron Rodgers. He is very consistent and gets the Chargers at home on a short week, coming off a horrific loss! This bodes for a higher scoring game than most people think in my opinion.  Rivers should have success against the Packers defense, even though the Packers have a top 5 fantasy scoring defense so far this season. Adams should be back this week, Montgomery has played well in his absence and what can we say about James Jones, just amazing thus far.  All that said, I haven’t played Rodgers at all this season and he has only showed up on the week 2 top lineup. The simple fact is, his cost versus production isn’t worth it. One of our experts concluded earlier this week, if you were to simply build your lineup off of our Projection2Spend report here, you would have scored over 200 points last week and that is because guys like Josh McCown and Blake Bortles get you just as many if not more points than these high priced QB’s. The guy I’m on is our #3 for this week, Andy Dalton. No, I’m not jumping on the band wagon persay but I will say that Dalton has been the most consistent QB this season outside of Mr. Brady. He is also going up against the Bills defense who is giving up the 7th most fantasy points to QB’s so far this season. His $5,700 salary on Draftkings makes him an almost a #MustHave for your lineup this weekend.

For full QB projections for Draftkings go here.

For full QB projections for FanDuel go here.

Crackpot Inventor Changes Future and You Don’t Even Know It

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1. Has This Man Already Changed Our Future?

Oh Dodgers, you had one job.  Since you moved to the West-Side in 1958, you never lost at home with a chance to win a series – never – until last night.  You and your $289 million dollar payroll just goes to show you can’t buy championships in baseball anymore.  Now the Cubs have to face a tougher road to get to the World Series, instead of playing a bunch milque-toast chokers like you.  It was the perfect opportunity for Chicago to rid themselves from a curse of futility and shame.  Now it’s harder for Back to the Future to be right, they gotta work for everything to earn the right just MAKE the World Series.

So pack it up Mattingly, your gone, see ya Puig, Magic please turn out the lights.  This team has to start over, because next year the Giants are winning it all, as is their custom, and you can’t beat anyone when it counts the last 25 years.

Now we get endless shots of the biggest Mets and Cubs fans on every broadcast, living and dying with every foul-ball and pitch.  It’s better this way, than with you LA.  It’s a harvest of talent, Bill Murray, John Cusak, Eddie Vedder vs. Chris Rock, Jerry Seinfeld, John Stewart – and if the Cubs do win, then we should just make Theo Epstein President, because what he’s done before 42 is more impressive than those other jokers – just think of the possibilities…

  • Daniel Murphy Doesn’t Want To Stop Being A Met Just Yet – Daniel Murphy’s Mets days are probably numbered, but he made sure last night that there will be at least a few more. Murphy pretty much was New York’s offense in their Game 5 win over the Dodgers, and backed by another excellent pitching performance from Jacob DeGrom, the Mets are through to the NLCS……(continue reading)

Would You Eat the Moon if it was made of Ribs?

What You Need To Know To #win: #CollegeGameDay

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Wanna watch the best catch of 2015 so far?!

1. Shades of Prothro

Sure Auburn played Kentucky earlier on Thursday Night and we’ll get to that…but…wow.  What a beat down Stanford dished out to UCLA.  The game was over at halftime and this catch was the highlight of the game in the third quarter, on a trick play from mid-field.  The story is Stanford and Christian McCaffrey – Stanford for reeling off 8 in a row, making a case for a playoff spot and having us all wonder what happened at Northwestern – Christian McCaffrey for gaining 369 total yards and 4 TD’s!  If you watched it live, then you saw one of the best performances of the year by ANY college football player.  It’s just too bad no one really did.

  • RB McCaffrey’s historic night powers Stanford past UCLA, into playoff mix: When Andrew Luck returns to Stanford in the summer, he likes to tease strength coach Shannon Turley about making sure the Cardinal program remains a meritocracy. For those of us who didn’t score high enough on the SAT verbal, Luck essentially means that the essence of the Stanford program is rooted in the belief that opportunities should be earned as opposed to gifted. In short, production trumps hype……(continue reading)

  • Game Recap | Auburn 30, Kentucky 27:  It was right there for Kentucky. Down three at home to Auburn, a little more than a minute to go, first down near midfield after a 23-yard Garrett Johnson catch. But then it was over, a 30-27 Tigers win at Commonwealth Stadium.  Seemingly sitting pretty in those final moments……(continue reading)


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2. Battle of Midway

It’s the middle of the season and big conference matchups dot the landscape of college football.  Several undefeated teams take on huge tasks to stay unbeaten this Saturday and DC*3PO has chosen these games to see if we can do better than last week’s 70% ATS – so Let’s Get It On!         (h/t Matt Brown)

Morning

  • No. 17 Iowa(-2.5) at No. 20 Northwestern – Noon, ABC/ESPN2 – It is possible that nobody has a better path to an undefeated season than Iowa. The Hawkeyes managed to beat rival Iowa State this year, they beat Pitt on a 57-yard field goal and they beat Wisconsin in a 10-6 Big Ten slugfest. They are 6-0, with the remaining schedule featuring Northwestern, Maryland, Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue and Nebraska. This week they get the Wildcats, who just lost 38-0 to Michigan and rank 118th in yards per play on offense. Everything seems to be setting up perfectly for an Iowa team that has been mired in mediocrity for the last five years.  Still scratching my head on Northwestern beat Stanford.
    • Iowa 17.25  –  Northwestern 23.35  –  65.95%

  • West Virginia at No. 2 Baylor(-21) – Noon, Fox – TCU is Baylor’s chief rival now, and beating the other Texas schools is also hugely important to the Bears. But West Virginia has become something of a pseudo-rival since joining the Big 12. In 2012, West Virginia famously beat Baylor 70-63 in a game that featured 1,507 total yards. In 2013, Baylor won 73-42. Last year, West Virginia stunned the No. 4 Bears 41-27, finding a way to limit the prolific Baylor passing offense — something nobody has done this season. West Virginia is the best defense Baylor has faced, by far, and yet the Mountaineers still rank a pedestrian 48th in yards per play allowed, and they’re missing their best player, safety Karl Joseph, who is out for the rest of the season.
    • West Virginia 26.65  –  Baylor 36.55  –  71.75%

  • No. 13 Ole Miss(-10.5) at Memphis – Noon, ABC/ESPN2  Say hello to the biggest home AltX.Logo.whitegame in Memphis history. Then Tigers are a perfect 5-0, they still have coach Justin Fuente before he inevitably ends up taking a bigger job and they have a terrific quarterback in Paxton Lynch. On Saturday afternoon, on national TV, they host a nearby SEC “rival” that they’ve defeated only 10 of 60 times. Memphis last beat Ole Miss in 2004, and now both teams are as good as they’ve been in a while. This was the case last year too, though, when Ole Miss took care of the Tigers 24-3.
    • Ole Miss 34.45  –  Memphis 25.05  –  72.3%

  • Louisville at No. 11 Florida State(-7) – Noon, ESPN  Last year, Louisville — like many other teams — came so close to ending Florida State’s unbeaten run. At home on a Thursday night, Louisville built a 21-0 lead but lost, thanks in part to the play of running back Dalvin Cook. With Jameis Winston gone, Florida State is more reliant on Cook now, and it’s paying off. He just has to stay healthy as he deals with hamstring issues. Cook has rushed for 792 yards on just 88 carries, becoming a big-play machine. The one concern is that Louisville has the best defense that he’s seen thus far, with a sturdy defensive front that can give FSU’s offensive line trouble — and perhaps finally force an interception from the formerly turnover-prone Everett Golson.
    • L’ville 18.35  –  FSU 30.1  –  76.55%

Afternoon

  • No. 7 Michigan State at No. 12 Michigan(-8) – 3:30 p.m., ESPN  The Michigan-Michigan State rivalry has long been a series of streaks. Michigan has dominated the series for the most part, but Michigan State took control in the ’50s and ’60s, and it’s taken control again since Mark Dantonio’s arrival. It’s a new era, however. While Michigan State is undefeated, it has not looked as sharp as its 6-0 record indicates, with close wins over Purdue and Rutgers the last two weeks. So while the Spartans are undefeated and ranked seventh, they are an underdog in the Big House, against a Michigan team that is exceeding all expectations in Jim Harbaugh’s first season.
    • MichiganSt 17.25  –  Michigan 30.4  –  76.3%

  • No. 10 Alabama(-4) at No. 9 Texas A&M – 3:30 p.m., CBS  For two years, Texas A&M harassed Alabama like nobody else with Johnny Manziel at quarterback. The Aggies stunned the Crimson Tide 29-24 in 2012, and they scored six touchdowns in a 49-42 loss in 2013. Then the bottom fell out: Texas A&M’s fast start in 2014 was erased by a three-game midseason losing streak, which ended with a 59-0 humiliation at Alabama. Much of the past year has been spent trying to rebound from the embarrassment, and now the Aggies find themselves unbeaten, 2-0 in the SEC, while Alabama has a loss to Ole Miss on its resume.
    • Alabama 28.95  –  Texas A+M 23.05  –  64%

  • No. 19 Oklahoma(-5) at Kansas State – 3:30 p.m., ABC  In a perfect world, Oklahoma would be able to try to bounce back from its devastating loss to underdog Texas by beating up on, say, Kansas in Norman. Instead it has to travel to Manhattan to face Kansas State, which came so, so close to taking down TCU last week at home. Oklahoma has not lost back-to-back regular-season games since 1999, but Bill Snyder’s teams are always capable of upsets, especially at home. This year’s team appears likely going to pull one off at some point despite entering the season with lowered expectations and then running into quarterback injury problems. The last two weeks, the Wildcats have lost to undefeated Oklahoma State and TCU by a total of 11 points.
    • Oklahoma 28.2  –  KState 28.45  –  53.9%
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  • Virginia Tech at Miami(-6) – 3:30 p.m., ESPNU  Neither team has been impressive this season, but this old Big East matchup still comes with some importance attached: 1) Every game in the ACC Coastal is important because it’s so wide-open, 2) Al Golden is trying to save his job, 3) Frank Beamer is trying to avoid retirement. Virginia Tech may get QB Michael Brewer back after he broke his collarbone against Ohio State in the opener, but the Hokies are still dealing with the absence of star cornerback Kendall Fuller. Both of these teams are a bit unpredictable right now. Virginia Tech took care of N.C. State after back-to-back losses to East Carolina and Pitt; Miami has lost back-to-back games to Cincinnati and Florida State and has had a recent tendency to collapse after getting beat by the Seminoles.
    • VaTech 25.65  –  Miami 27.5  –  54.05%

  • Nebraska at Minnesota(-2) – 3:30 p.m., ESPN2  Melvin Gordon’s 400-yard game probably could not be survived by Bo Pelini, but a game later Minnesota sealed his fate with a 28-24 win in Lincoln. It’s one of many close losses that have plagued the Cornhuskers, regardless of head coach. They lost by four to the Golden Gophers late in the 2014 season under Pelini. They lost by three in the Holiday Bowl to USC under interim coach Barney Cotton. And now, under Mike Riley, they’ve lost four games by 11 points, on a Hail Mary, an overtime interception, a last-minute touchdown after poor clock management and a last-second field goal. A 2-4 start is horrifying for a Nebraska team that has lost exactly four games seven years in a row, and it comes with both positives and negatives.
    • Nebraska 23.15  –  Minnesota 23.75  –  63.95%

Prime Time

  • No. 8 FU at No. 6 LSU(-9.5) – 7 p.m., ESPN – Florida lost its starting quarterback to a one-year suspension, but Will Grier’s absence doesn’t necessarily take the Gators out of the SEC title hunt. They still hold a two-game advantage over Georgia and Tennessee in the East, and they still have one of the nation’s best defenses. In fact, if anybody can finally slow down Leonard Fournette, it’s Florida, with players like end Jonathan Bullard and linebacker Antonio Morrison leading an impressive front.
    • FU 23.55  –  LSU 28.85  –  66.05%

  • Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State(-17) – 8 p.m., ABC  Conventional wisdom would say that Ohio State’s defensive line will dominate this game, and the Buckeyes will win relatively comfortably in a night game at home. Conventional wisdom is probably accurate. Penn State’s offensive line has yet to have a repeat of its meltdown in the Sept. 5 loss to Temple, but it’s still up and down, and quarterback Christian Hackenberg still has issues handling pressure. Given the presence of players like Joey Bosa, Adolphus Washington and Darron Lee, among many others, in Ohio State’s front seven, there’s a good chance that the Buckeyes stifle the Nittany Lions, force mistakes and win going away.
    • Penn St 16.6  –  OhioSt 30.4  –  76.75%

  • USC at No. 14 Notre Dame(-7) – 7:30 p.m., NBC  It’s been a tumultuous week for USC,AltX.Logo.white to say the least. A preseason top-10 team, USC lost at home to Washington 17-12 last Thursday. On Sunday, Steve Sarkisian reportedly showed up for work drunk and was placed on leave. On Monday, he was fired while on his way to check into a treatment facility,according to ESPN. Now, USC is trying to move forward under interim coach Clay Helton, the offensive coordinator. It must do so against its cross-country nemesis, going to South Bend to visit a one-loss Notre Dame team still clinging to playoff hopes. Notre Dame has had its own issues with a bad run of injury luck, but it has held together nicely, staving off Navy’s option attack last week after a heartbreaking loss at Clemson.
    • USC 27.75  –  NotreDame 32.95  –  64.1%

  • Missouri at Georgia(-16) – 7:30 p.m., SEC Network  Florida has built a two-game cushion in the SEC East, and thus Georgia desperately needs to stop the bleeding at home against a struggling Missouri offense. The Bulldogs will have to move on without injured running back Nick Chubb, which is a huge loss, although Sony Michel is a budding star who is averaging 6.7 yards per carry and was a highly regarded recruit. This will be a stiff test, as Missouri continues to play terrific defense, giving up very little on the ground this season.
    • Mizzou 16.3  –  Georgia 29.6  –  79.8%

  • No. 3 TCU(-21) at Iowa State – 7 p.m., ESPN2  There is no reason to expect Iowa State to actually win this game, beyond memories of that one time Iowa State upset a national title contender at home. But there is hope for keeping it close, because TCU’s issues on defense — attrition from last year and several key injuries — have turned both Big 12 road games into shootouts so far. The Horned Frogs beat Texas Tech 55-52, and they beat Kansas State 52-45. Both of those teams are better than Iowa State, of course. The Cyclones just lost to Texas Tech 66-31, and while they may point up a similar point total against TCU, they have little hope of slowing down Trevone Boykin, Josh Doctson and the rest of an explosive offense.
    • TCU 40.75  –  IaState 21.45  –  82.95%

  • Boston College at No. 5 Clemson(-15.5) – 7 p.m., ESPNU  Boston College is going to have to actually score points in an ACC game before we predict the Eagles to do so. After losing quarterback Tyler Murphy and their entire offensive line from last season, Boston College has now lost quarterback Darius Wade and running back Jon Hilliman to injuries. In three conference games against Florida State, Duke and Wake Forest, Boston College has allowed two touchdowns. And yet it’s 0-3, because it has scored only seven points. It has already wrapped up the honor of ugliest game of the season after it failed to score on four red zone trips in a 3-0 home loss to Wake Forest.
    • BC 1.8  –  Clemson 33  –  97%

Late Night

  • Arizona State at No. 4 Utah(-6.5) – 10 p.m., ESPN  Utah has moved up to No. 4 in the AP poll, and you can still frame its resume however you’d like. On one hand, Utah beat Michigan (who is much better than expected), California and Oregon (by 42 in Eugene). On the other hand, Michigan was in its first game under a new coach, Cal committed six turnovers and still had a chance to win on the final drive and Oregon is clearly a shell of its former self. Utah has a resume that makes it look like one of the best teams in the country, but a couple losses still feel inevitable. This is a very good team, but it has an average 247Sports recruiting ranking of 47.2 over the last five years. The defense is physical and forcing mistakes, but there’s also a chance that positive turnover luck will even out.
    • ASU 21.2  –  Utah 31.7  –  73.85%

  • Oregon at Washington(-2.5) – 10:30 p.m., ESPN2  Last year’s national runner-up, Oregon is just 3-3 to open the 2015 season, conjuring memories of the 2010 Texas Longhorns, who went 5-7 after losing the BCS title game to Alabama. Last week, Oregon lost to Washington State for the first time since 2006. This week, Oregon will attempt to avoid losing to rival Washington for the first time since 2003. It appears that the 2015 season may give a chance to several teams to exorcise demons against the Ducks, who have run roughshod over most of the Pac-12 for so long. Washington is coming off its 17-12 road upset of USC, and its defense has played really well. Oregon’s running game is still dangerous behind Royce Freeman, but its ability to win depends on quarterback play and whether its secondary can stop anybody. Washington quarterback Jake Browning has potential, but so far the Huskies offense hasn’t scared anyone. Oregon might be able to run the ball to win and regain some confidence.
    • Oregon 20.75  –  UW 32.15  –  75.85%