Teaching You How to #Win – #NFL Week 6 Favorites/Over-Under/Matchups to Exploit

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Heaviest Favorites

As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:

  • Green Bay -11.5 over San Diego
  • New England -8 over Indianapolis
  • Seattle -7 over Carolina

Last week was another solid week of picks.  Nailed the heaviest favorites section and as you can see, we have two of the same teams on this list again, New England and Green Bay. Image result for patriots colts memeWhen the Packers are at home, it’s not the offense this year that has been incredible, it’s the defense. They are getting to the QB on a consistent basis and now get the Chargers coming into town on a short week.  I like the Chargers in this one when given the points but Green Bay should secure victory in this one.  I see this one having more scoring and the Packers pull it out late 33 – 29.  As for the Patriots, what can I say, this should be a blowout for the Patriots again this week. The Colts haven’t played well all season, a very Luck–eh performance against the Titans and then two more division wins by a 40 year old, one of which was on his death bed. The Colts haven’t shown they can stop the run offense by New England since Luck came into the league and this just smells like another Blount kind of day.  Our last game for this segment is the reeling Seahawks against the Panthers. Carolina comes into this game off a bye week and each of the last 3 games that these two have played, Seattle has won it at the end of the game in a low scoring affair.  The Seahawks expect Lynch to play this week and they are at home, so you combine that with their desperate need for a victory to stay relevant this year, I’m taking Seattle to win but Carolina with the spread.  The guys to look out for in these games are as follows:

  • LaGarrette Blount
  • Rob Gronkowski
  • Tom Brady
  • Donte Moncrief
  • Randall Cobb
  • Antonio Gates

 


Top Overall Game Over/Under

This week we have the Patriots as top over/under game of the week yet again.  New England and Indianapolis square off yet again on a Sunday night and this time they are playing for something different.

Sep 15, 2013; Indianapolis, IN, USA; General view of Lucas Oil Stadium during the third quarter during an NFL game between the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Tom Brady wants revenge for the whistle blow last post season that almost had him sitting out until this game. The over is at 55 for this game and considering that the Patriots have averaged a 29 point victory against the Colts with Andrew Luck as the starter, this is a pretty safe take.  My bold prediction for this week, which I admit, isn’t all that bold, is New England gets 6 TD’s and two field goals to put up 48 points.  The Colts get some late scores and end up with 24.  Blount gets 2 TD’s, Brady throws for 4 TD’s, 2 to Gronk, 1 to Lewis and 1 to Edelman.  Patriots roll and the Colts, well they still need to figure out how to play defense in this league in order to be considered a championship contender.

 

 


Matchups to Exploit

In this segment, I am going to breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it is because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.

Let’s make this simple to the stats as they come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.

  • Passing Yards is the San Francisco 49ers at 308.32 yards
  • Rushing Yards is Miami at 143.1 yards
  • Overall is Minnesota at 420.15 yards

I agree that Dolphins D is going to get torched again but by whom you ask? My #1 Sleeper is Antonio Andrews this weekend and I like him on both FanDuel and Draftkings.  Most people don’t know this but Andrews is averaging 13.8 points per game on Draftkings and he gets all the goal line work. I’m not saying that he is going to rush for 200 yards and 4 TD’s like Jonas Gray did last year but DiRTCanon A.I.I could see 80 yards and 2 TD’s, which would get you over 20 fantasy points and you would only spend $3,400.  The 49ers are back at home against the Ravens, who are simply struggling.  Neither team is much to watch and with Smith still expected to be out, it would be a tough play to start Joe Flacco in DFS and the only receiver that might be worth while would be Kamar Aiken. I’m not taking either one as our DC*3PO has the 49ers D ranked #2 in fantasy points scored this week.  Stay away from this game is all I can say! The last game on this list is Minnesota. Obviously, the stats are going to be inflated versus expectation because of the injury to Charles. I don’t expect a ton of production in this game on either side and I certainly wouldn’t take West or Davis in DFS this week, you have to wait and see who gets the workload, I suspect pretty even production. The QB to consider for this weekend is Andy Dalton, he is even cheaper than he has been as the Bengals head up to Buffalo.  What most people don’t realize is that the Bills pass defense is giving up 7th most fantasy points to the QB position so far this season and #5 in points given up to TE’s. Taking the Dalton/Eifert connection is another safe play this week, with fairly cheap salaries.  Check back on Sunday morning as I will reveal our expert picks for this weekends games!


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