Teaching You How to #Win – Favorites/Over-Under/Matchups to Exploit

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Heaviest Favorites

As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:

  • Kansas City -10.5 over Chicago
  • Green Bay -10 over St. Louis (in Green Bay)
  • New England -10 over Dallas

Boy was I wrong last week as the 49ers proved yet again why I can’t believe anyone is a 49ers fan, that team is terrible.  Your boy, Xerxes, or as one great man put it, Colin KaepN’1read, has lost whatever talent he once displayed.  The Seahawks are not going to the Superbowl this year, they should be 1 – 3 right now and another terrible call in Seattle, got them back to .500.  Andrew Luck didn’t play and news was announced this morning that he will sit out again.  All you folks that took the Colts this year to get to the Bowl, who you got now?  I have been on Patriots and Falcons from the beginning and so far, I like my chances.  As for these games, I’m taking the Bears and the points with the Chiefs winning this game 27 – 20.  Green Bay will win but I don’t believe they blowout the Rams, if Gurley gets going like I thought Hyde would do last week, this will be a close game with Green Bay winning 31 – 24 with a late touchdown.  New England rolls the Cowboys 49 – 10 and if my dream comes true, Greg Hardy plays only one play on defense before the entire offensive line chop blocks him and sends him to see Dr. Andrews…..nuf said!

Top Overall Game Over/Under

This week we have a tie for the top over/under game of the week.  New England and Dallas as well as New Orleans and the Eagles are both slated for 49.5 combined points.

Sep 19, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; General view of the NFL game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

As you can tell, I am already on the Patriots as I think they will put up the 49 points and we will see if Dallas can get the other .5 points but I think this is a safe bet.  The Eagles and Saints however, I don’t think they have a chance a scoring 49.5 points.  The Eagles are a hot mess right now and while the Saints aren’t very good either, they are coming off a late night OT victory.  I am taking the Saints this week and the 4.5 points but I have the Saints winning 20 – 17 so I’m on the under.  Nothing like rooting for no touchdowns I know but the truth is, the Eagles have no idea what they are doing on offense and I expect that to continue again this weekend.

Matchups to Exploit

In this segment, I am going to breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it is because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.

Let’s make this simple to the stats as they come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.

  • Passing Yards is the New York Giants at 309.85 yards
  • Rushing Yards is Cleveland at 126.8 yards
  • Overall is New England at 427.6 yards

I agree that Justin Forsett is going to torch the Browns defense this weekend and I like him on both FanDuel and Draftkings.  In fact, he had a breakout game last week and with Steve Smith expected to miss this game, look for him to play a big role as the Ravens look to get back in the division race.

Nov 10, 2013; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; General view of MetLife Stadium during the NFL game between the Oakland Raiders and the New York Giants. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA Today Sports

As for the Giants pass defense, while terrible so far, they get Captain Check Down this week.  I don’t believe that the Giants will give up the most passing yards this week simply because of who they are playing.  Instead, I think Brady goes for 350+ on Dallas.  That brings me to New England’s defense, DC*3PO has them giving up a ton of yards to the Cowboys, which could be the case but I don’t think so.  I have already said that I believe the Pats win 49 – 10 so the overall defense to exploit is in fact Dallas.  The defense that I think will create turnovers and not give up many yards is in fact the Giants. If you take the Giants D, you will save an extra $400 or more on this roster spot and that might just get you Keenan Allen or Larry Fitzgerald in that mid range zone.  Most people will pick the Denver D for their fantasy team as evident in our Public Picks here.