Teaching You How to #Win – Favorites/Over-Under/Matchups to Exploit

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Heaviest Favorites

As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:

  • Kansas City -10.5 over Chicago
  • Green Bay -10 over St. Louis (in Green Bay)
  • New England -10 over Dallas

Boy was I wrong last week as the 49ers proved yet again why I can’t believe anyone is a 49ers fan, that team is terrible.  Your boy, Xerxes, or as one great man put it, Colin KaepN’1read, has lost whatever talent he once displayed.  The Seahawks are not going to the Superbowl this year, they should be 1 – 3 right now and another terrible call in Seattle, got them back to .500.  Andrew Luck didn’t play and news was announced this morning that he will sit out again.  All you folks that took the Colts this year to get to the Bowl, who you got now?  I have been on Patriots and Falcons from the beginning and so far, I like my chances.  As for these games, I’m taking the Bears and the points with the Chiefs winning this game 27 – 20.  Green Bay will win but I don’t believe they blowout the Rams, if Gurley gets going like I thought Hyde would do last week, this will be a close game with Green Bay winning 31 – 24 with a late touchdown.  New England rolls the Cowboys 49 – 10 and if my dream comes true, Greg Hardy plays only one play on defense before the entire offensive line chop blocks him and sends him to see Dr. Andrews…..nuf said!


Top Overall Game Over/Under

This week we have a tie for the top over/under game of the week.  New England and Dallas as well as New Orleans and the Eagles are both slated for 49.5 combined points.

Sep 19, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; General view of the NFL game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

As you can tell, I am already on the Patriots as I think they will put up the 49 points and we will see if Dallas can get the other .5 points but I think this is a safe bet.  The Eagles and Saints however, I don’t think they have a chance a scoring 49.5 points.  The Eagles are a hot mess right now and while the Saints aren’t very good either, they are coming off a late night OT victory.  I am taking the Saints this week and the 4.5 points but I have the Saints winning 20 – 17 so I’m on the under.  Nothing like rooting for no touchdowns I know but the truth is, the Eagles have no idea what they are doing on offense and I expect that to continue again this weekend.


Matchups to Exploit

In this segment, I am going to breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it is because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.

Let’s make this simple to the stats as they come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.

  • Passing Yards is the New York Giants at 309.85 yards
  • Rushing Yards is Cleveland at 126.8 yards
  • Overall is New England at 427.6 yards

I agree that Justin Forsett is going to torch the Browns defense this weekend and I like him on both FanDuel and Draftkings.  In fact, he had a breakout game last week and with Steve Smith expected to miss this game, look for him to play a big role as the Ravens look to get back in the division race.

Nov 10, 2013; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; General view of MetLife Stadium during the NFL game between the Oakland Raiders and the New York Giants. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA Today Sports

As for the Giants pass defense, while terrible so far, they get Captain Check Down this week.  I don’t believe that the Giants will give up the most passing yards this week simply because of who they are playing.  Instead, I think Brady goes for 350+ on Dallas.  That brings me to New England’s defense, DC*3PO has them giving up a ton of yards to the Cowboys, which could be the case but I don’t think so.  I have already said that I believe the Pats win 49 – 10 so the overall defense to exploit is in fact Dallas.  The defense that I think will create turnovers and not give up many yards is in fact the Giants. If you take the Giants D, you will save an extra $400 or more on this roster spot and that might just get you Keenan Allen or Larry Fitzgerald in that mid range zone.  Most people will pick the Denver D for their fantasy team as evident in our Public Picks here.

Learn More About #KarmicResponsibility

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1. Further Mis-Adventures of #KarmicResponsibility

This is Pittsburgh’s Bartman.  Maybe one of the most complete teams the Pirates have ever had and some douche-nozzle comes up with THIS, AND gets a Hotel chain to produce them to pass out.  Hey, it’s #Murica and we all have that luxury – but just because we can, doesn’t mean we should and #5 is the example hillbilly fandom that screams #KarmicResponsibility.  Beyond the Nuclear-Level of OCD this fan has – he must have forgotten you never plan cheers – you’re not Duke fan and it’s never clever.  I say HE because we all know, only a man would come up with this from his mother’s basement.

Anyway, now the Cubs move on to face a team in the Cardinals that seem to be held together by duct-tape – aren’t they every year? – so now we get two fanbases, that dislike each other, to such a degree, that they both act like everyone’s drunk uncle, on Thanksgiving, at your Mom’s house, with her new boyfriend that looks a lot like Jim Tomsula…Cubs fans are excited, again.  Like a dog chasing cars – it seems like the dopamine dump, cubs fan gets, shuts off their common sense and they quickly forget/bury the destiny that they are to blow it in the worst way.  All we need now, is some clown to get a world series tattoo and complete the affront to #KarmicResponsibility – or some other nonsense that creates the cyclical train-wreck of sorrow Cubs Fan is so used to.


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2. ALDS Preview: Rangers v BlueJays

3:30 PM EST ALDS Gm 1 Rangers @ Blue Jays Gallardo (13-11) at Price (18-5) FS1 / SNET

Those plucky Rangers are back in the playoffs, and it seems they only get there when they have Josh Hamilton, and Cole Hamels – eeery.  To start the season, the 2015 Rangers found themselves without young phenom Profar and staff Ace, Yu Darvish – and further seemed out of it by the trade-deadline.  Then they traded prospects for Cole Hamels, strengthened their bullpen, got healthy and went on a second-half tear to win the division from the Astros.

For the BlueJays, you have to remember 2012, when they finished with a 73-89 record and by trades and free agent signings they brought in Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey only to improve by one game.  In 2014, the BlueJays improved to 83-79, so when they were looking at a record of 45-46 at the All-Star break, the ‘Jays pushed all the chips in on Tulowitzki and David Price, to go along with 2015 free-agent signee and possible AL MVP josh Donaldson, to become an offensive juggernaut that can play D and pitch.

  • For all the talk that the Toronto Blue Jays are the obvious best team in the American League — they’re the overwhelming Vegas favorite, and ESPN’s Jayson Stark has already picked them to win the World Series — the one thing Toronto wasn’t this season was the best team in the American League. The Jays didn’t…(continue reading)

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3. ALDS Preview: Astros v Royals

7:30 PM EST ALDS Gm 1 Astros @ Royals McHugh (19-7) at Ventura (13-8) FS1

No-longer are they the Lastros – an organization that averaged 108 losses from 2011 to 2013 and are baseball’s youngest team – they beat the Yankees on Tuesday and now face their opposite in every way.  It’s Manufacturing versus Big Oil.  The steady-rolling production of the Royals, versus the Boom-or-Bust-strike-it-rich nature of the Astros.

  • Just three short years ago, the Royals went 72-90. It was their ninth consecutive losing season, and their eighth out of those nine that they had lost 90 or more games. Being a Royals fan meant unrelenting misery. It meant being unhappy on purpose. That same year, though…(continue reading)

4. Saturday Afternoon in Death Valley

If any fanbase can understand and appreciate what Gamecock fan is going thru – its Tiger fan.  What comes to mind for me is 2005 when LSU had to go to Arizona State after Hurricane Katrina for a home game in the desert.  Arizona State donated the gate receipts from the game to LSU and the Fiesta Bowl covered LSU’s travel expenses – in return, LSU will pay it forward to South Carolina, and what could have been a trap game looks a bit more fortuitous for LSU – so Saturday I’ll cheer for South Carolina before and directly after the game.

  • Because of the aftermath from flooding that began last weekend, officials felt it was unwise to play the game at the regularly scheduled site of Williams-Brice Stadium. Access to areas of the city, the safety of the infrastructure and the availability of drinking water were major concerns……(continue reading)

5. Banner Raised

Last night was the start of the NHL season if you were to busy to notice watching the Pirates and Cubs.  In Chicago they raised another banner and the Rangers started the Blackhawks off with a L.  If you do not have NHL-CenterIce package to watch all the ‘Ockey you want – I think you can find games on the NBCSN channel – I just have no idea where to find it…but anyway here is Yahoo Sports preview of all 30 teams from the Puck Daddy staff: