DiRTy Plays NFL week 4
We have our first controversy of the season as Cam Newton has decided to throw the refs under the bus but this guys biceps aren’t going to take it. The simple fact is that Cam is over reacting to something that was a normal play. I have no doubt that Ed said something to him but this just goes back to Newton thinking that he is untouchable. He is still the most immature QB in the league and this is after Manziel’s stint in rehab. This is the exact reason that he will never win anything in the NFL!
Onto better news, The DiRT Canon AI has officially gone live with the latest update coming out today by 5 p.m. to our Lineup Analyzer! This means that you will now get full recommendations for us to analyze your lineup in real time. NO MORE WAITING, so come and check it out here and if you sign up for our Silver membership you will get the rest of the month at 50% off. This means our season is underway and I know you are still looking to become a millionaire, whether you play on Draftkings or FanDuel, let us help. As we look at tournaments to target, build your player profile, we are also going to provide you with our experts’ picks as they bring you #TheBeSTDiRT for building your lineups each and every week. So let’s breakdown week 4 for Draftkings & FanDuel!
Absolute Must Have
We know you have been waiting since the end of the NBA season for you Absolute player selections so here we go. Reminder that this selection is for players with a salary above $7,000. Week 4, we are starting see who are the best performers in the league and so with that our absolute Must Have for Draftkings is Antonio Brown….AGAIN, coming in with a top projection of 31.91.
Let’s face it, he is making his imprint on being the best wide receiver in the game. On FanDuel we have Carson Palmer coming in on our top spot. Let’s face it, the Cardinals are for real when Palmer starts, going 15 and 2 over his last 17 starts. Their defense is creating turnovers and Arians loves to go deep. Personally, I think the most successful change for this team is the movement of Larry Fitzgerald into the slot position. If you watch The League on FX, you know they had a who show about the Slots of your Lineup but if you want to win on Draftkings, these are the guys you should be looking for, high volume catches with touchdowns in the red zone.
Please note, Ben Roethlisberger is OUT for this week and if you check out our Injury Breakdown report, you will see our impacted player and injury projection information!
Onto our mid-level salaried guys, we have our Notables section. This is for players with a salary between $5,300 and $6,900. Our Draftkings Absolute Notable for week 2 is Carson Palmer.
The only surprise here is that his salary is still under $7,000. Take advantage while you can because I highly doubt this will be the case for any week in the future. The Absolute Notable for FanDuel is Nick Foles. The numbers are still telling us to take a look at him but after he was unable to produce a touchdown, at home, against the terrible Steelers pass defense, I wouldn’t take him. In this section, look at Tyrod Taylor to put up big numbers again this week. His is not only producing in fantasy but he is #5 in QBR in the league right now and only 2% of you have had him in each of the first 3 weeks of the season.
Our Absolute Sleeper section looks for guys that have a salary of $5,100 and under. Coming in as our Absolute Sleeper for week 2 on Draftkings is the Nick Foles. As we said in our notable section, he will be a boom or bust play this week, I stay shy away from him and look for better production from Tyrod Taylor. That said, not very many will have him and if he just gets his average, you will have a shot at a ton of cash this weekend. For FanDuel we have San Francisco’s defense as our Absolute Sleeper.
Yes, I know, why would our AI produce San Francisco after being blowout the last two weeks and my answer is simple, they are at home. In their only home game, they absolutely demolished the Vikings offense and Hyde went off. Do I believe that will happen again, probably not but let’s face it Rodgers does throw picks on the road and this is one of those games where that one guy knows something that you don’t know, maybe you should go with that guy. Look at it this way, take a chance in one lineup with the 49ers defense and stack the lineup with all of the top performing guys and see what you get. I suspect less than 1% of the population is going to be on them this week and the last time we had a similar projection, it was the Bills on week 1 and they tore up Andrew Luck.
My #1 Sleeper this week is Carlos Williams. He is coming off touchdowns in all three games and with McCoy likely to sit out at least this week, look for him to have a huge game against the Giants defense. While our AI projection for him, still has him slotted in the number 2 spot, when McCoy is officially listed as Out, be sure to check out our Injury Breakdown report to see our impacted players and injury projection. Just go to our home page here, click on Injury Breakdown and you are off and running.
As of today, the heaviest favorites for the week are as follows:
- Indianapolis -10 over the Jags
- Seattle -10 over the Lions
- Green Bay -9.5 over the 49ers
I have already told you that I’m on the 49ers as my dog for the week. I don’t think they will win but our AI has Green Bay winning 23 – 21 this week and I think that is a pretty realistic outcome. Seattle will demolish the Lions and beat them down by 3 touchdowns this weekend as they look to get back to .500 for the season. Nothing like going home to get you back on track and playing against the Bears and Lions at home, certainly doesn’t hurt! Now for the Colts and Andrew Luck, attempting to keep their divisional winning streak alive and up to 15 consecutive games. The Colts have to have this game if they want to keep their name in the conversation for Super Bowl consideration and the Jags are coming off a beat down from the Patriots. Colts roll this week and Luck gets back on track with 5 TD passes. Consider him for your lineup this week, it might be his best week of the season.
Top Overall Game Over/Under
If you checked me out last week, I went a total of 15 out of 16 using our AI to help me select and nailed the over for Monday night between Green Bay and Kansas City. This week our top over under is yet again Green Bay and their opponent San Francisco. The over is at 48.5 as of this morning on 5Dimes.com and I am taking the under in this matchup. I actually have the Bills and Giants scoring the most combined points this weekend. Our AI says 46 for the Packers and 49ers matchup and I am going to stick with that, Rodgers hits a late touchdown to James Jones and they sneak out a victory over the 49ers, who get some pride back after the past two weeks.
Toughest QB Matchup
This week we have Philip Rivers coming in at our top spot. Cleveland has an 11.66 rating against QB’s this season on the road and Rivers is coming off one of his worst performances, being sacked 5 times and throwing that terrible pick six against the Vikings. That said, Cleveland is giving up the most rushing yards this season, look for San Diego to run the ball more in this game and Rivers to go without any turnovers. Next we have Matt Ryan. I have no idea how Houston keeps showing up with a tough defense, but they did shut down the Bucs last week and their opponents this year have not been at Ryan’s caliber. I am on the Falcons this week (as always) and they should terrorize this secondary with Julio Jones continuing his 10+ catch 125+ yards per game. Last we have Blake Bortles. This is the one that I think has the best chance of being the worst QB for the week. Not that I think the Colts defense is anything to worry about but I do think their offense gets going and this quickly turns into a route. Bortles won’t have much to respond with and finishes with 212 yards, 1 TD and 2 Int’s.
Matchups to Exploit
In this segment, I am going to breakdown the pass defense, rush defense and overall defense to exploit for the week. If a team shows up in this area, it is because our system shows them as giving up the most yardage totals for the upcoming week.
Let’s make this simple to the stats as they come directly from our Odds page, so come and take a peak here.
- Passing Yards is the New York Giants at 357.5 yards
- Rushing Yards is Cleveland at 144.8 yards
- Overall is Detroit at 414.7 yards
I agree that Tyrod Taylor is going to torch the Giants defense this weekend and I like him on both FanDuel and Draftkings. In fact, he is the reason that I have been cashing at such a high rate and hitting some of the larger payouts of the season thus far. As I have already said, I am on the Chargers running the ball more this week to protect Rivers and Seattle is going to put a beat down on the Lions. These are all matchups I like and so if you can identify some players like Woodhead for the Chargers, Jimmy Graham for Seattle and Taylor for the Bills, I think you are headed in the right direction.
Our top 3 QB’s for this week in order of projected score is Aaron Rodgers #1, Carson Palmer #2 and Cam Newton #3. This probably doesn’t come as much surprise to you given that the Rodgers is on a roll, coming off a 5 TD performance. We have hit on this a bunch but I don’t think he is going to be as on as he has been this season, look for a solid performance but probably not a QB I would take in daily fantasy this week because of cost versus production. Second we have Palmer. I really like him going up against the Rams and Arians just likes to toss the ball around. Look for another solid 22+ point performance and he isn’t all that expensive. Last we have Cam Newton. I just hope he keeps his mouth shut after the game and let’s see what he can do against the terrible Bucs this weekend. I like Olsen again this week so that means we need to have Cam give a solid performance.
This is a new segment for us to cover this year. Currently FanDuel and Draftkings won’t tell you who the public is on for this week’s contests. There is a reason for that from their perspective but from ours, we love it. While we cannot tell you specifically which site has which figures as that would violate our partnership agreement with each company, we can tell you based on the NFL.com, Perfect Lineup challenge, who the public is on. Yet another reason why you only need to come to our site for all of your Daily Fantasy information.
QB – Aaron Rodgers 63.1%
RB – Le’Veon Bell 55.4%
WR – Julio Jones 66.9%
TE – Greg Olsen 43.2%
K – Mason Crosby 31.6%
DEF – Arizona 33.6%
- Julio Jones 28.3 – $9,400
- Aaron Rodgers 26.1 – $9,200
- Larry Fitzgerald 24.9 – $7,400
- Antonio Brown 24 – $8,900
- Andy Dalton 23.9 – $7,600
- Julio Jones 37.0 – $9,300
- Antonio Brown 31.9 – $9,200
- Larry Fitzgerald 30.8 – $6,500
- Aaron Rodgers 27.7 – $7,900
- Le’Veon Bell 26.2 – $7,700
As of today, we only have some weather conditions expected and they are as follows:
- Carolina @ Tampa Bay with a 65% chance of rain
- Philadelphia @ Washington with a 65% chance of rain
- Kansas City @ Cincinnati with a 54% chance of rain
Now for the part that we know you have all been waiting for, give me the lineup that will win. I know, I know, we have done this quite significantly in the past and now we have our lineup analyzer providing automatic lineup recommendations but what do I think. Here is my top lineup for week 3, main contest on Draftkings:
Now we look to provide your FanDuel lineups for the week below:
Logan Cartwright’s Expert Pick
Come check out the rest NOW.