What You Need to Know to #win this Weekend

Biting the Bullet

Before the end of the first half of last night’s game – you would have thought we were watching someone slowly die of a terminal disease – Twitter and Broncos fans were already calling for 18’s retirement, before hailing the conquering hero with adulation and gifts that solidified their faith in Saint Peyton.  ER’s in Denver have been busy thru-out the night and early morning from grade 2 sprained ankles, all from apparent wagon-jumping injuries.

You started to feel bad for 18 – two pick sixes in back-to-back weeks?!  When Knile Davis scores on an 8-yard run with 2:27 left, giving the Chiefs a 24-17 lead you wondered if there was any magic left – you’re the Chiefs, at home, and you still found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  Emmanuel Sanders scores with :36 left and then Jamaal Charles fumbles for a scoop-and-score.  Only the Chiefs.

From 1989 – 1999 the Chiefs won 11 straight home-openers – since, they are 5-11 since 2000 – Only the Browns are worse at home since that time.  Andy Reid will never win anything, is the thought I had watching that game last night.  He is clueless.  From throwing the ball in the 2nd quarter that gets intercepted – to not challenging a catch when an injury gave your staff plenty of time to review the call that would have made a huge difference – you’re just left wondering if he can focus long enough to NOT cost his teams’ games – and it is no longer funny that a WR can not get into the endzone

So, Peyton still looks like a guy who doesn’t belong on your fantasy team yet (remember his first two games with Denver), but the Broncos are 2-0 and have now won 13 consecutive divisional road games – last night was the definition of pigskin insanity – this weekend’s forecast seems to call for Category 4 vortex of crazy.


Titans Tennessee_ntc120 @ Cleveland_6n_120 Browns  PK

 

DiRT Canon A.I.: gives the Browns a 60.9% chance of victory and says they are 3 pts better than Tennessee

My take: This seems nuts, but I will side with the Browns SU, and tease ’em  – even though the Browns have only covered 2 of the last 16 home openers.  But, the Titans are 4-18 ATS the last 22 games.

Rams St._louis_ntc120 @ Redskins Washington  +3.5

DiRT Canon A.I. gives the Rams a 61.2% chance of victory and says they are 3 pts better than Washington

My take: part of me thinks Washington wins this game outright and for that I would only tease ’em

Texans Houston_6n_120 @ Carolina_6n_120 Panthers  -3

DiRT Canon A.I. gives the Panthers a 67.5% chance of victory and says they are 5.5 pts better than Houston

My take: I know Carolina’s offense is funky, but so is Houston – I’m going with the A.I. and taking a chance at CAR SU, but defintely will tease ’em

49ers San_francisco_6n_120 @ Pittsburg_ntc120 Steelers  -5.5

DiRT Canon A.I. gives the Steelers a 60% chance of victory and says they are 3 pts better than SF

My take: from what I last saw of Pittsburgh, I do not trust that defense and will be shocked if they are not one of the worst D’s in the league by the end of the year – if nothing else on that team changes – so I’m all over the ‘9ers, who are also 11-1 ATS in the Eastern Time Zone – so SF SU and tease ’em – Steelers in September: 1-9 ATS

Buccaneers Tampa_bay_ntc120 @ New_orleans_6n_120 Saints  -11

DiRT Canon A.I. gives the Saints a 75% chance of victory and says they are 8pts better than Tampa

My take: The Saints are 22-5 ATS the next game, however they have not done well recently being double-digit favorites.  God’s Army will win this game, of course that was said several times last year before they collapsed, and I would stay away from this one – but if you have to tease the Saints.

Lions Detroit_6n_120 @ Minnesota_ntc120 Vikings  -2.5

DiRT Canon A.I. gives the game a 50-50 chance for either team

My take: The Lions seem to be the better team and Teddy-two gloves looked like a more accurate Alex Smith than a guy taking the next step.  But, the real question is when does A.P. break out – it could be this game…The Vikings are 18-3 SU hosting the Lions (13-7-1 ATS), as for the Lions they have only covered 2x’s the last 14x’s they were a road underdawg – so, I’m gonna lean on the Vikes and tease ’em only.

Cardinals Arizona_whitetail_ntc120 @ Chicago_ntc120 Bears  +2.5

DiRT Canon A.I. gives the Cardinals a 63% chance to win the game and says they are 3.5pts better than the Bears

My take: The Bears have only covered 4 of their last 19 home games.  If Drew Brees could not beat Arizona, how does Jay Cutler?  I like the Cardinals SU and tease ’em – with a side-bet that Patrick Peterson picks off Smokin’ Jay.

Patriots New_england_6n_120 @ Buffalo_red_ntc120 Bills  PK

DiRT Canon A.I. gives the Patriots a 57% chance to win the game and says they are 2pts better than Bills

My take: The Bills are public favorite now and this game points all towards the Patriots to me.  The Pats are 26-3 SU versus the Bills (18-10-1 ATS) and with revenge games – the Patriots are 43-21-2 ATS and 16-3 ATS if that team was from the same division – so I’ll take the Patriots SU and also tease ’em.

Chargers San_diego_6n_120 @ Cinncinnati_6n_120 Bengals  -3

DiRT Canon A.I. gives the Bengals a 63% chance to win the game and says they are 3.5pts better than the Chargers

My take: The Chargers in September, their last 10 games are undefeated against the spread – I’m not sure they will win but I’m gonna tease the Chargers.

Falcons Atlanta_ntc120a @ New_york_g_6n__120 Giants  -2.5

DiRT Canon A.I. gives the Giants a 59% chance to win the game and says the Giants are 2.5pts better than Atlanta

My take: The Giants did not look good on Sunday Night and you wonder how long that choke job stays with ’em.  Me, I’ll take Julio Jones and tease the Falcons.

Dolphins Miami_greenmask_ntc120 @ Jacksonville_6n_120 Jaguars  +7

DiRT Canon A.I. gives the Dolphins a 63% chance to win the game and says Miami is 4pts better than the Jaguars

My take: The Jags are appearing to be in line to get a high-draft pick again and not sure when it will end.  If the Chargers are undefeated in September, the Jags are DEFEATED in September the last 10 games – winless against the spread.  I’ll tease the Dolphins only, because I don’t trust Philbin.

Ravens Baltimore_ntc120 @ Oakland_b_wstripe_n_120 Raiders  +7

DiRT Canon A.I. gives the Ravens a 67.5% chance to win the game and says they are 5.5pts better than the Raiders

My take: Stay away from this game – putting any action on this means you might be a degenerate – and not that there is anything wrong with that – it’s just why would you do this to your family – think of your daughter’s dance lessons, or your son’s sports fees…But if you must, the Raiders at home are 33-61-1 ATS, including 7-15 ATS recently, so….

Cowboys Dallas_6n120 @ Philadelphia_6n_120 Eagles  -5

DiRT Canon A.I. gives the Eggles a 51% chance to win the game and says no team is better than the other

My take: The Cowboys escaped sunday night, but outplayed New York so I question the number here a bit.  The Cowboys as underdogs by more than a FG are 16-3 ATS – against the Eggles, as an underdog they are 25-8 ATS.  Meanwhile the Eagles at home have only covered 11x’s of their last 36 and when they have been favored for a second week in a row are 5-21 ATS.  It seems that someone knows something we don’t know, and this time, I’m going against that somebody – give me Dallas SU and tease ’em.

Seahawks Seattle_6n_120a @ Greenbay_6n_120 Packers  -4

DiRT Canon A.I. gives the Packers a  54% chance to win the game and says they are 1pt better than the Seahawks

My take: The A.I. seems to be on to something here.  The Seahawks in their last 21 games as an underdawg have only 4 losses ATS – and since they have technically lost 2 straight they are 14-2-1 ATS.  But, they are average on the road and Green Bay needs/wants payback – so I’ll tease the Seahawks only.


Is Lousiville the best 0-3 team in the nation?  They could be, but they definitely are the best team in the nation at self-destruction.  Last night after playing their third QB of the season it was painful to watch Louisville go down like the Chiefs.  On one play the QB wasn’t ready for the snap and then threw it out-of-bounds, next play he got sacked, and then on the next, launched a Hail-Mary when 15yds or so would have put them into position to tie the game.  Is this Karma for Petrino?

Here are some games for Saturday – (number is as of Thursday night), Big Game at the DiRT Canon Bunker at 3:30p EST – FuQU Auburn!

The DiRT Canon A.I. thoughts are the screenshot – below it, are a few of mine:

CFB_week3

E-Z cover?

  • California (-3) by 5 over TEXAS – The DiRT Canon A.I. is perfect SU and ATS on Texas games, thus far, and it may have underestimated Cal in its lone FBS game which was a 35-7 win over San Diego State last week.
  • Georgia Tech (-2) by 4 over NOTRE DAME – 2014 Notre Dame leading rusher Tarean Folston is lost for the season and so is starting QB Malik Zaire. Georgia Tech showed up at the beginning of the year to win this game by 2.04 and that number has more than doubled to 4.44 without taking those injuries into account.
  • TOLEDO (-7) by 23 over Iowa State – I have to take this game, if only for the huge difference between the 7-point line and the A.I.’s projected spread of nearly 23 points.
  • Virginia Tech (-5.5) by 12 over PURDUE – Virginia Tech had a chance to get QB Brenden Motley up to speed in last week’s 42-3 rout of Furman. Motley, who had that deer-in-the-headlights look when he replaced injured starter Michael Brewer in the 3rd quarter of the opener vs. Ohio State, threw for 233 yards and 2 TD’s, and ran for 38 yards and another score. Purdue QB Austin Appleby has thrown 5 TD passes, but also has 4 INT’s. The Boilermaker defense has allowed almost 500 yards per game vs. Marshall and Indiana State. This is the first-ever meeting between the 2 teams.
  • SAN DIEGO STATE (-15) by 20 over South Alabama – The Jaguars barely beat FCS Gardner-Webb in their opener and then got annihilated at Nebraska. The Aztecs should be good for a win by 20 or more.
  • TCU (-37) by 38 over Smu – SMU has played better than expected against Baylor and North Texas, but the computer line has still only shrunk by less than a point. The 95th meeting of these metroplex rivals should go similar to last season’s 56-0 Horned Frog win in Dallas.
  • TEXAS STATE (-1.5) by 4 over Southern Miss – The Bobcats are getting less than home field advantage vs. a Southern Miss program that has 2 road wins vs. FBS schools in the last 3 years (UAB and North Texas).
  • USC (-9.5) by 17 over Stanford – This feels like a USC rout is written all over it. The computer line has widened over 3 points since the preseason.

hmmm…hold on

  • MICHIGAN STATE (-26.5) by 21 over Air Force – The Spartans will have to stop a rushing offense that ranks 2nd, going into this game, and has ranked in the top 12 in each of the last 11 years (I stopped checking after that). MSU traditionally has a top defense, but has surrendered almost 200 yards on the ground to both Western Michigan and Oregon. This is the first-ever meeting between the Falcons and Spartans. In fact, MSU has also never played Navy and is 0-2 all-time vs. Army with that last meeting taking place in in 1984.
  • ALABAMA (-7) by 3 over Ole Miss – Granted, Ole Miss hasn’t really played anyone, but has scored 149 total points versus UT-Martin (76-3) and Fresno State (73-21). If the Rebels’ offense gets traction, ‘Bama may not be able to keep up.
  • UCLA (-16.5) by 12 over Byu – BYU has needed a little magic to start 2-0 with wins over Nebraska (away) and Boise State (home). UCLA has been strong, but not awesome, in wins over Virginia and UNLV. 
  • PENN STATE (-8.5) by 6 over Rutgers – Rutgers is 2-23 all-time vs. the Nittany Lions and has dropped the last 8 since a 1988 win. Despite the suspension of leading receiver Leonte Carroo, Penn State has to avoid embarrassment and win this one, right?
  • WASHINGTON (-5.5) by 3.94 over Utah State – Utah State QB Chuckie Keeton survived a tough loss at Utah last week, though he spent most of the game limping after his knee was hit on a 1st quarter roughing the passer penalty. That doesn’t sound like good news for the Huskies who opened with a loss to another Mountain West team, Boise State, to start the season. These teams haven’t met since 1998.

Possible Upset?

  • BOWLING GREEN by 1 over Memphis (-4) – A good game between a pair of strong Group of 5 schools. BGSU’s 21-point win at Maryland, (#nailedIt) registers as a bit more impressive to me than Memphis’ 32-point win at lowly Kansas. I like the Falcons chances at home versus the Tigers.
  • Central Michigan by 3 over SYRACUSE (-5) – By beating Wake Forest 30-17 last week, the Orange have already picked up a win that I didn’t see them getting. Syracuse did win last year’s meeting in Mount Pleasant 40-3.
  • Colorado State by 15 over Colorado (-3.5) (at Denver) – How are the Buffs -3.5 favorites.  This seems like easy $$$, but the cautionary tale is – someone knows something we don’t know and maybe we should go with that somebody…The Rams have taken 2 of the last 3, including 31-17 last year.
  • East Carolina by 1 over NAVY (-3) – Navy has been a proverbial thorn in ECU’s side with 3 wins in 4 meetings. The teams haven’t met since 2012. The Midshipmen routinely rank near the top in rushing offense while the Pirates ranked 11th and 13th, respectively, in rushing defense the last two seasons.
  • KENTUCKY by 1 over Florida (-3) – It’s a bit of a stretch, in my opinion, for the oddsmakers to give Florida the edge on the road. I do not see either one of these teams having great years. The Wildcats seem poised for the win, especially after last week’s victory at South Carolina.
  • Western Kentucky by 12 over INDIANA (-2) – Another mind-scrambler, as I can’t agree with Indiana being the favorite. Neither team has shown much on defense and Indiana has better offensive stats through 2 game. Both teams are 2-0, but WKU has played the tougher schedule.
  • Nebraska by 5 over MIAMI, FL (-4) – Al Golden seems to have a permanent spot on the hot seat as Miami’s head coach and needs this win to quiet the haters. I don’t see it happening.
  • NEW MEXICO STATE by 1 over Utep (-3.5) – When New Mexico State lost at home to Georgia State, it inherited the nation’s current longest losing streak at 12 games. UTEP has 4 straight road losses.
  • San Jose State by 1 over OREGON STATE (-9) – The Beavers rank 121st in total offense after games vs. Weber State (FCS) and Michigan. The Spartans rank 27th after games vs. New Hampshire (FCS) and Air Force.

 

Baseball will be up on “DiRTy Plays MLB” before 3p for all you seamheads

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