Last night, college football came back – Brady was exonerated in a court of law – CU received payback from that 5th down, all those years ago and tomorrow MORE college football! But it’s Friday and it’s a big night of baseball and we must talk about Carlos Gonzalez.
Carlos Gonzalez is on fire – not since Ryan Howard way back when, has anyone hit 25 HR’s in 50 games – and not since 1999 has anyone had this many multi-HR games. What I’m saying is Carlos Gonzalez is the only reason the Rocky-Mountain Region has been enjoying tacos. He and Nolan Arenado are providing the only joy, in a Rockies, loveless marriage of the 2015 baseball season so far – so PROST!
Heaviest Favorites – according to Vegas
Tanner Roark vs. Atlanta Braves (-256) – The Braves really are just a sad, sad team. Even the addition of Freddie Freeman to the lineup doesn’t help their cause that much. I mean, we start off tonight with Roark as the favorite pitcher, according to Vegas, and he’s going to cost us $4,200. Now, if a pitcher is that cheap, it’s not because DraftKings is being nice, it’s because he truly deserves that salary. So, how do you feel about that Atlanta!? Roark enters tonight with a 4.54 ERA to go with a 1.30 WHIP and a K/9 of 5.9. Roark has been in the bullpen this year, but gets a spot start due to Strasburg having back issues. I think that makes it look even worse for Atlanta! A relief pitcher is that heavily favored over them. Roark did get sent down to the minors in order to be stretched out so he’s not coming in completely cold turkey. The Braves have one of the worst wOBA in the second half of the season, and one of the sad parts is, I don’t see it getting any better tonight. It’s been that bad folks. I don’t know if I would recommend starting Roark tonight, because I don’t know how deep in the game he’ll be able to go, but hey, the choice is yours.
Joe Kelly vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-200) – Now here’s something I didn’t expect to see, is Joe Kelly favored in a game. Kelly has had an atrocious 2015, that is until we hit the month of August. In six August starts, Kelly owned a 2.55 ERA to go with a 28:11 K:BB ratio and a 1.23WHIP. I mean, this is a guy who prior to this month, had his lowest ERA in April at 4.94. Not something any of us expected. With that being said, Vegas is liking this “new” Joe Kelly that we’ve been seeing and has him favored over the Phillies tonight. The Phillies have been hitting well since the All Star Break, but they still have their games where they look the Phillies of old. Kelly still has to work on his splits, as he owns a .365 wOBA against righties and a .305 against lefties, but truly, he looks like a completely different pitcher on the mound than he has at any other point this season. He’s only going to cost $6,400 tonight, so in terms of a value play, he could be a perfect player for that.
Jacob deGrom vs. Miami Marlins (-180) – Truly, the only aspect about this start that doesn’t make it a slam dunk, is how little the Marlins strike out. They have the second to lowest K% on the season at 18%. Otherwise, deGrom would be a beast in this start. Coming into tonight, deGrom has some nasty splits. Against righties, deGrom is only giving up a .204 wOBA on the season, which truly is amazing. That’s Dallas Keuchel level when he faces lefties. Speaking of lefties, deGrom owns a .278 wOBA against them. The Marlins, like the Braves, are one of the worst hitting clubs in the second half of the season. The other factor that concerned me a bit, was that the Marlins run out a leftie heavy lineup when facing a RHP. Don’t get me wrong, deGrom doesn’t struggle against lefties, but he certainly is worse off against them. Digging a little deeper into his stats, I come to find out that deGrom actually has a higher K/9 against lefties than he does righties, so go figure. I think deGrom is going to be the top option tonight, with a second straight day of weak pitching upon us.
Top Overall Game per O/U
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies (Coors Field) – 10.5 Over/Under – Another game at Coors Field means another day of the highest projected run total of the night. This game features Chris Heston taking on Jorge De La Rosa in this one. Heston enters tonight with a 3.56ERA to go with a 1.25 WHIP and a K/9 of 6.6. Heston has pitched in Coors Field twice this season and his not been met with much success. In two starts this season, Heston has given up 12 runs in just 11 innings pitched. Add in the fact that he struggled in his first start back from the minors and we got a good looking matchup for the Rockies. Heston really struggles against left handed batters, as he owns a .347 wOBA when facing them this season. As for De La Rosa, he comes in with a 4.40 ERA to go with a 1.40 WHIP and a K/9 of 8. Both these teams haven’t exactly been getting it done with their bats this season, so I’m curious to find out if this game will actually be a high scoring affair or not. One reason this could be is De La Rosa and his struggles at Coors. He owns a 5.91 ERA at home compared to a 3.22 on the road. Nine of his 15 home runs given up this season have come at home, where his WHIP is also much higher at 1.61 compared to his 1.19 on the road. Overall, I think this could be a decent games of runs, but maybe not as much as usual, just because both teams are struggling to find their offense.
Toughest Pitcher L/R matchup
- Left handed batters
- Martin Perez OAK (LwOBA .192)
- Adam Morgan PHI (LwOBA .238)
- Aaron Brooks OAK (LwOBA .248)
- Right handed batters
- Jacob deGrom NYM (RwOBA .204)
- Luis Severino NYY (RwOBA .212)
- Corey Kluber CLE (RwOBA .220)
Easiest Pitcher L/R matchup
- Left handed batters
- Keyvius Sampson CIN (LwOBA .417)
- Julio Teheran ATL (LwOBA .391)
- Right handed batters
- Aaron Brooks OAK (RwOBA .409)
- Drew Hutchison TOR (RwOBA .370)
All Pitcher Stats
Hottest Hitters – last 7 days
- Christian Yelich MIA – DiRT Canon Value – 103.11
- Joey Votto – DiRT Canon Value – 102.82
- Jordy Mercer PIT – DiRT Canon Value – 98.69
- J.P. Arencibia TAM – DiRT Canon Value – 97.20
- Edwin Encarnacion TOR – DiRT Canon Value – 96.22
- Didi Gregorious NYY – DiRT Canon Value – 95.98
Other notables: Carlos Gonzalez COL is 10-30 with 5 HR’s, 13 RBI and 7 runs scored. Ryan Zimmerman WAS 13-28 with 5 HR’s, 14 RBI and 8 runs scored.
Best BvP matchup Tonight
Miguel Cabrera vs. Corey Kluber- Ohhhhhh boy do we have some good BvP for you tonight. We start off with the machine known as Miguel Cabrera going up against Corey Kluber. Cabrera is 20-35 against Kluber with seven extra base hits, five of them being home runs and a 1.652 OPS. Even if you don’t like BvP, this might just have to be one of those days where you suck it up and like it.
Brian McCann vs. Jake Odorizzi- McCann rarely has made an out when he faces Odorizzi. It’s almost unfair. McCann is 10-16 against Odorizzi with six extra base hits, two of them being home runs, and a 1.960 OPS. I mean, talk about seeing a pitcher well.
Gregory Polanco vs. Carlos Martinez- I know, this is a small sample, but truly, what on earth does Martinez have to do to get Polanco out!?! Polanco is 8-11 against Martinez with three extra base hits and a 1.877 OPS. 8 for a damn 11! That’s impressive.
There are a few games that you might want to keep a weather-ed eye on:
ATL @ WAS, CLE @ DET, and SF @ COL
Top 4 by Position – in no particular order
A Pitcher To Consider
Jacob deGrom ($11,400) – It was really neck and neck for deGrom and Severino tonight on who to start. They both have favorable matchups, deGrom is a bit weaker in terms of strikeouts because of how little the Marlins strike out, but ultimately, I like deGrom. You truly can’t deny how dominant he’s been this season, coming into tonight with his 2.32 ERA and his 0.95 WHIP with a K/9 of 9.4. deGrom is also averaging 22.3 points per start, which would certainly be a nice start to your lineup. As I mentioned a couple times in this article, the Marlins are really a sad state of affairs when it comes to hitting. deGrom has let up a fair share of home runs this season with 15, but I truly don’t think we have to worry about that to much with the Marlins tonight. Finally, as I also mentioned this, the Marlins go leftie heavy when facing a RHP, as they usually have five lefties in their lineup, but deGrom has a higher K/9 against lefties than he does righties, so I hope that will play a factor tonight. He’s expensive, but I think worth the price of admission tonight.
Miguel Cabrera ($4600) – I usually try and stay away from putting a BvP guy in this section here, because overall, you can’t rely too heavily on the BvP, especially when you’re paying up for someone. However, we have exceptions to the rules and this is my article! Cabrera has straight up filthy numbers against Kluber. We can run down them one more time. Cabrera is 20-35 against Kluber with seven extra base hits, five of them being home runs and a 1.652OPS. If you REALLY want to go deeper, Cabrera owns a .433 wOBA against RHP with an ISO of .215. I mean, if that’s not enough to convince you, I don’t know what it would take. Cabrera is truly “cheap” for tonight, running you for $4,600. You really can’t come up with many excuses to leave him off your team.
Adrian Gonzalez ($3300) – I’m not really sure why Gonzalez is priced so low. He hasn’t been the force we’re used to, but damn, $3300!? Fine with me, I’ll take it. I recommended him last night and he had an awful game, so he owes me one. Tonight, Gonzalez faces James Shields, who really struggles against left handed batters. On the season, Shields owns a .369 wOBA against them while giving up a ton of home runs, 17 to be exact. I get that they’re at Petco tonight, but Shields has still given up 13 of this 26 home runs at home. Add on the fact that Gonzalez owns a .368 wOBA against RHP and I think we have quite a nice matchup ahead of us for a cheap price.
– player capsules via Steve Buchanan
The Rest by Position