Before the NFL gets cranked up, we here at the DiRT Canon are going to provide you a cheat-sheet, if you will, of the full slate of games on Tuesdays and Fridays. So here we go with the new roll out, let us know your thoughts and get ready for some exciting news in the next few days, that’ll get you pumped for football!
Heaviest Favorites – according to Vegas
Matt Harvey v. Colorado Rockies (-230) – Are the Rockies now the Phillies in Vegas’ eyes? Since the trade-deadline, they have seemingly appeared here a lot. Tonight the Rockies get Matt Harvey, who comes into tonight with a overall value number of 4.277 with a SO/inning of 1.889. Harvey appears to be back as the pitcher we are used to seeing, and against RHB’s is giving up only .234 in weighted on-base average. In the last two weeks, the Rockies have struck out more than any team, during that span – probably because of Drew Stubbs and Brandon Barnes. Harvey will not be cheap, as he is the third most expensive pitcher tonight at $10,900. However, you never know with Colorado, he could be worth a 20 spot.
Drew Hutchison v. Oakland A’s (-185) – Another team that is struggling to hit the ball lately, is Oakland. Wins are never a good indicator of a pitchers performance and Drew is a good example at 10-2. His value tonight is 4.148, but he struggles to strikeout lefties and against righties he is a very expoitable .384 wOBA – second highest. Oakland in the last two weeks has gone to worst in weighted on-base average at .274. So considering that Oakland is hard to strikeout a lot, and they are playing in Toronto, yo have to think about the value of Drew at $5,700. At that price you could expect a chance at 15pts and afford a hitter with greater upside.
Erasmo Ramirez v. Atlanta Braves (-180) – Erasmo enters the night below 4 in value at 3.767 and that could be an alarm. But, at $5,800 there is some potential value here. Erasmo at home is a very good .272 wOBA and against lefties, .261 wOBA. For Atlanta, that means the only dangerous guys to get to Erasmo are likely Cameron Maybin or Chris Johnson. I am not saying this is the steal of the century, but with a 1.56 SO/inning it is something to consider.
Top Overall Game per O/U
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (Chase Field) – [O/U 9] – Hellickson in his last few starts has been a solid pitcher, but when he is named in the highest run total projected by Vegas, you should shy away. The Blue Jays and A’s are close with 8.5. So this becomes more of someone you could really exploit and that guy is David Buchanan. If he was a train, he would be wrecked. It doesn’t matter if your left or right, you can hand out free tattoos on the guy and the way certain D’backs play at home, an Arizona stack could be a nice play here.
Worst Pitcher L/R matchup
- Left handed batters
- Zack Greinke LAD (LwOBA .241)
- Carlos Rodon CWS (LwOBA .255)
- Hector Santiago LAA (LwOBA .257)
- Right handed batters
- Matt Harvey NYM (RwOBA .234)
- Zack Greinke LAD (RwOBA .210)
- Taylor Jungmann MIL (RwOBA .240)
Best Pitcher L/R matchup
- Left handed batters
- Michael Lorenzen CIN (LwOBA .437)
- David Buchanan PHI (LwOBA .428)
- Right handed batters
- Carlos Rodon CWS (RwOBA .394)
- Anibal Sanchez DET (RwOBA .363)
All Pitcher Stats
Hottest Hitters – last 7 days
- Andrew McCutchen PIT – DiRT Canon Value – 101.34
- Josh Donaldson TOR – DiRT Canon Value – 84.11
- Matt Carpenter STL – DiRT Canon Value – 84.10
- Ryan Zimmerman WAS – DiRT Canon Value – 84.68
- Danny Valencia OAK – DiRT Canon Value – 87.67
- Francisco Cervelli PIT – DiRT Canon Value – 82.91
Other notables: Ian Desmond is 8 for 23, with 3 HR’s and 6 RBI, 6 runs scored and 3 stolen bases – Khris Davis is 8 for 22 with 4 HR’s, 12 RBI and 5 runs scored.
2nd Base BvP matchup Tonight
Robinson Cano vs. Chris Tillman- Cano is 12-29 against him with three extra base hits, two of those being home runs, and a 1.124 OPS.
Jose Altuve vs. Madison Bumgarner – Altuve hasn’t seen much of Bumgarner, but he has some decent success against him. Altuve is 5-14 with a home run and a .929 OPS against the Giants’ ace.
Neil Walker vs. Carlos Martinez- Three of the hits off Martinez, went for extra bases with two of them being home runs. Add that to a 1.231 OPS.
The Rockies and New York Mets have a threat of rain during their game tonight. It shouldn’t be enough to cancel, but it could disrupt their play. Watch this one closely.
A Pitcher To Consider
Taylor Jungmann ($8700) – Jungmann is good. He has some stuff that can get batters out, sprinkled in with some strikeouts and you could be hitting a gold mine for $8700. Truly, you can’t beat his price. It amazes me he’s still as low as he is. Tonight, Jungmann gets the strikeout happy Cubs, who have the highest strikeout % in the league for the past month at 23.8. Jungmann comes into tonight’s start with a 2.26 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and 61 strikeouts in 71 innings. His wOBA against righties is fantastic at .249 with a .300 against lefties. He’s done a fantastic job with keeping the ball in the park, giving up only two home runs on the season. Against a team that is struggling with power over the past month, 23rd during that time, and their struggles offensively as a whole, Jungmann is going to be REALLY tough to pass up at $8700.
AJ Pollock ($4700) – Pollock gets that matchup against David Buchanan and his .362 wOBA against righties. Pollock has been solid this season, coming in with a .306 average with 11 home runs, 47 RBIs, and an .820 OPS. Averaging 8.8 points per game, Pollock has been hitting well against RHP this season. Entering tonight, Pollock is hitting .306 against them with nine of his 11 home runs on the season. If you want to get a bit more advanced, that’s good for a .361 wOBA with a .164 ISO against RHP. With how poorly Buchanan is pitching this season, Pollock sounds like a great option in your outfield tonight.
Cesar Hernandez ($3400) – Hernandez continues to dwell in the lower tiered pricing on DraftKings, while he continues to rack up the points. He’s been a double digit scoring machine lately, with four out of his last five games. Enticed yet? He’s always a threat to steal a bag, with 14 of his 17 coming off RHP. His wOBA against righties sits a .311 on the season, which just continues to trend upward. Hernandez is not a power threat, with only one home runs on the season, but his ability to get on base, .342 vs righties, and his ability to swipe a bag, is always something you’d want to shoot for with these low priced players.
The Rest by Position