2015 Bracket-ology Madness Locks of the Century of the Week

The idea behind our in-depth bracket, was several different combinations of formulas.  We intend to update the picks by round and to continue to offer those that might be good gambles to wager – for entertainment purposes only.  So to further help or confuse – here are some figures that we took into consideration:

  • Offensive Scoring 73% (11) averaged at least 77.0 PPG and finished among the Top 30 scoring teams in the nation. The only exceptions here were 2000 Michigan State, which averaged 74.1 PPG, 2011 UConn (72.4 PPG), 2013 Louisville (74.5 PPG) and 2014 UConn (71.9)
  • Offensive Shooting 73% (11) made at least 47% FG and ranked in the Top 30 in national FG percentage. Six of the teams ranked in the Top 10, including 2012 Kentucky (9th). But four of the previous five champions were below this mark — 2010 Duke, 2011 UConn, 2013 Louisville and 2014 UConn
  • Offensive Three-Point Shooting 73% (11) made at least 38% 3-pt FG, and all placed in the Top 40 in the nation in this category. 2002 Maryland was just below the mark (37.4%), but 2003 Syracuse (34.4%), 2011 UConn (32.9%) and 2013 Louisville (33.3%) weren’t close.
  • Defensive Scoring 67% (10) allowed fewer than 65.0 PPG. Of the five champions that allowed more than 65.0 PPG, four were ACC schools (2001 Duke, 2002 Maryland, 2005 and 2009 North Carolina).
  • Defensive Shooting 93% (14) allowed 41% FG or less with 2001 Duke just missing the cut at 41.6% FG. Five of these champions were among the Top 15 shooting defenses in the nation –2004 UConn ranked 1st, 2008 Kansas ranked 3rd, 2003 Syracuse ranked 5th, 2014 UConn ranked 8th and 2011 UConn ranked 11th.
  • Turnover Margin 80% (12) had a positive turnover margin (more takeaways than giveaways), but only 27% (4) were ranked among the nation’s Top 50 schools in this category. 2013 Louisville had the top mark here with a +5.8 TO margin, which ranked third in the nation. 2001 Duke had a strong +5.5 TO margin.
  • Double-digit favorites had been almost unbeatable over a three-year span from 2008 to 2010, going 44-1 SU & 26-16-3 ATS (62%). In the past five years (2010-14), the SU record was still 66-8

TRENDS BY SEED

  • #1 vs. #16: A #1 seed has never lost to a #16 seed outright in the NCAA Tournament. The #1s had covered 15 of 20 games (75%) from 2007-2011 with an average winning margin of approximately 30.0 PPG. But in the last three years, the #16s were 8-4 ATS, losing by just 15.6 PPG. The OVER was just 4-8 (33%) in 2011 to 2013, but 3-1 (75%) last season.
  • #2 vs. #15: No #2 seed had lost to a #15 outright from 2001-2011, but in the last three years Fla Gulf Coast (over Georgetown), Lehigh (over Duke) and Norfolk State (over Missouri) won outright as #15 seeds. In the past 10 years, the #15 owns a 53% ATS advantage (19-17-4). The UNDER was 0-4 in #2 vs. #15 matchups in ‘13, but was 4-0 in 2014.
  • #3 vs. #14: Even with #3 Duke losing to Mercer last year, the #3 seeds are still 29-3 SU and 20-11-1 ATS (65%) since 2007. Some of this is due to smaller spreads, with #3 seeds favored by a mere 9.5-point average since 2012 with just four of the 12 teams favored by more than 11 points. The UNDER is 20-12 (63%) in the past seven years and 32-16 (67%) dating back to 2003.
  • #4 vs. #13: The #4 seed is 28-8 SU and 21-14-1 ATS (60%) over the past eight tournaments. In 2013, #13 Harvard beat #4 New Mexico outright as a 10.5-point underdog.
  • #5 vs. #12: The #12 seed has gone 14-22 SU (39%) vs. the #5 seed from 2004-2012, but is 3-1 SU (75%) in each of the last two years. Seven #5 seeds were favored by three points or less from 2010 to 2014, including two last year (Cincinnati -3 Harvard, Saint Louis -3 NC State). “A” level conference teams are on an 8-4 SU & 9-2-1 ATS (82%) run on the #12 line, including 3-0 in 2013 (Oregon, California and Ole Miss).
  • #6 vs. #11: Even with the spreads in the last five years’ 6/11 games all 6.5 points or less, the #6 seeds went 8-11-1 ATS, with 10 of those losses also being SU defeats, including two last year. #6 seeds are now 20-16 SU & 16-19-1 ATS since ‘06.
  • #7 vs. #10: Eleven #10 seeds have won outright over the past six years, but #10 seeds are still just 21-30-1 ATS (41%) since 2002. The straight-up winner in the 7/10 matchup has covered the spread in 65 of 68 games since 1998.
  • #8 vs. #9: This series remains as close as one would expect at 34-30 in favor of the #8 seed in the past 16 years. The #8 seeds have a slight 31-30-3 ATS advantage. The OVER is usually the play in this matchup, with a strong 29- 23 record (58%) since 2002.

Funny thing about upsets – Of the 40 Round-of-64 upsets from 2005 to ’09, 24 occurred in the Friday games. The 2010-2011 tourneys had 10 lower seeded teams win on Thursday and just seven upsets on Friday, but the 2012-14 dances saw just 11 lower seeds advance on Thursday, and a whopping 17 upsets on Friday.

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This is how our bracket shook out after the dust settled – if we did it right, we expect similar results to our overall success in college football – no one in the nation could beat us.

 

2015_bracket

 

Individual games to wager on – for entertainment purposes only:

Buffalo +4.5

Valpo +5

SF Austin +3.5

E. Wash +7.5

Davidson +2.5

If you want to tease a bet – go with this 12-team teaser with 9pts (+695):

UK -21

Notre Dame -3.5

Kansas -3

Wiscy -17

UNC -1.5

‘Zona -14

Oklahoma -4

Virginia -8

Duke -10.5

Iowa St -4.5

Gonzaga -8.5