2015 Bracket-ology Madness Locks of the Century of the Week

The idea behind our in-depth bracket, was several different combinations of formulas.  We intend to update the picks by round and to continue to offer those that might be good gambles to wager – for entertainment purposes only.  So to further help or confuse – here are some figures that we took into consideration:

  • Offensive Scoring 73% (11) averaged at least 77.0 PPG and finished among the Top 30 scoring teams in the nation. The only exceptions here were 2000 Michigan State, which averaged 74.1 PPG, 2011 UConn (72.4 PPG), 2013 Louisville (74.5 PPG) and 2014 UConn (71.9)
  • Offensive Shooting 73% (11) made at least 47% FG and ranked in the Top 30 in national FG percentage. Six of the teams ranked in the Top 10, including 2012 Kentucky (9th). But four of the previous five champions were below this mark — 2010 Duke, 2011 UConn, 2013 Louisville and 2014 UConn
  • Offensive Three-Point Shooting 73% (11) made at least 38% 3-pt FG, and all placed in the Top 40 in the nation in this category. 2002 Maryland was just below the mark (37.4%), but 2003 Syracuse (34.4%), 2011 UConn (32.9%) and 2013 Louisville (33.3%) weren’t close.
  • Defensive Scoring 67% (10) allowed fewer than 65.0 PPG. Of the five champions that allowed more than 65.0 PPG, four were ACC schools (2001 Duke, 2002 Maryland, 2005 and 2009 North Carolina).
  • Defensive Shooting 93% (14) allowed 41% FG or less with 2001 Duke just missing the cut at 41.6% FG. Five of these champions were among the Top 15 shooting defenses in the nation –2004 UConn ranked 1st, 2008 Kansas ranked 3rd, 2003 Syracuse ranked 5th, 2014 UConn ranked 8th and 2011 UConn ranked 11th.
  • Turnover Margin 80% (12) had a positive turnover margin (more takeaways than giveaways), but only 27% (4) were ranked among the nation’s Top 50 schools in this category. 2013 Louisville had the top mark here with a +5.8 TO margin, which ranked third in the nation. 2001 Duke had a strong +5.5 TO margin.
  • Double-digit favorites had been almost unbeatable over a three-year span from 2008 to 2010, going 44-1 SU & 26-16-3 ATS (62%). In the past five years (2010-14), the SU record was still 66-8

TRENDS BY SEED

  • #1 vs. #16: A #1 seed has never lost to a #16 seed outright in the NCAA Tournament. The #1s had covered 15 of 20 games (75%) from 2007-2011 with an average winning margin of approximately 30.0 PPG. But in the last three years, the #16s were 8-4 ATS, losing by just 15.6 PPG. The OVER was just 4-8 (33%) in 2011 to 2013, but 3-1 (75%) last season.
  • #2 vs. #15: No #2 seed had lost to a #15 outright from 2001-2011, but in the last three years Fla Gulf Coast (over Georgetown), Lehigh (over Duke) and Norfolk State (over Missouri) won outright as #15 seeds. In the past 10 years, the #15 owns a 53% ATS advantage (19-17-4). The UNDER was 0-4 in #2 vs. #15 matchups in ‘13, but was 4-0 in 2014.
  • #3 vs. #14: Even with #3 Duke losing to Mercer last year, the #3 seeds are still 29-3 SU and 20-11-1 ATS (65%) since 2007. Some of this is due to smaller spreads, with #3 seeds favored by a mere 9.5-point average since 2012 with just four of the 12 teams favored by more than 11 points. The UNDER is 20-12 (63%) in the past seven years and 32-16 (67%) dating back to 2003.
  • #4 vs. #13: The #4 seed is 28-8 SU and 21-14-1 ATS (60%) over the past eight tournaments. In 2013, #13 Harvard beat #4 New Mexico outright as a 10.5-point underdog.
  • #5 vs. #12: The #12 seed has gone 14-22 SU (39%) vs. the #5 seed from 2004-2012, but is 3-1 SU (75%) in each of the last two years. Seven #5 seeds were favored by three points or less from 2010 to 2014, including two last year (Cincinnati -3 Harvard, Saint Louis -3 NC State). “A” level conference teams are on an 8-4 SU & 9-2-1 ATS (82%) run on the #12 line, including 3-0 in 2013 (Oregon, California and Ole Miss).
  • #6 vs. #11: Even with the spreads in the last five years’ 6/11 games all 6.5 points or less, the #6 seeds went 8-11-1 ATS, with 10 of those losses also being SU defeats, including two last year. #6 seeds are now 20-16 SU & 16-19-1 ATS since ‘06.
  • #7 vs. #10: Eleven #10 seeds have won outright over the past six years, but #10 seeds are still just 21-30-1 ATS (41%) since 2002. The straight-up winner in the 7/10 matchup has covered the spread in 65 of 68 games since 1998.
  • #8 vs. #9: This series remains as close as one would expect at 34-30 in favor of the #8 seed in the past 16 years. The #8 seeds have a slight 31-30-3 ATS advantage. The OVER is usually the play in this matchup, with a strong 29- 23 record (58%) since 2002.

Funny thing about upsets – Of the 40 Round-of-64 upsets from 2005 to ’09, 24 occurred in the Friday games. The 2010-2011 tourneys had 10 lower seeded teams win on Thursday and just seven upsets on Friday, but the 2012-14 dances saw just 11 lower seeds advance on Thursday, and a whopping 17 upsets on Friday.

***

This is how our bracket shook out after the dust settled – if we did it right, we expect similar results to our overall success in college football – no one in the nation could beat us.

 

2015_bracket

 

Individual games to wager on – for entertainment purposes only:

Buffalo +4.5

Valpo +5

SF Austin +3.5

E. Wash +7.5

Davidson +2.5

If you want to tease a bet – go with this 12-team teaser with 9pts (+695):

UK -21

Notre Dame -3.5

Kansas -3

Wiscy -17

UNC -1.5

‘Zona -14

Oklahoma -4

Virginia -8

Duke -10.5

Iowa St -4.5

Gonzaga -8.5

DiRTy Plays Monday

March 16th, 2015

News & Notes:

Below you will find a Free Roll that we have put together with DraftKings that is designed for only beginners.  You can click on any game, banner or highlighted phrase to be taken to the proper location.  This means if you have NEVER played on Draftkings before tonight is your night.  It cost you nothing to enter and if you click here or just go to our DiRTy Plays Week of March 16th page we will tell you how to win at this contest.  Once you win some money tonight, come back and visit us next week as our lineup optimizer will be ready for you to use and not only will we will analyze your daily DiRTy plays for DraftKings but Fan Duel as well, we always provide insight into why you should stick with certain players.  We will be adding a new segment next week that will also outline some of those guys that you should shy away from and why that is so look for that new segment.  Now let us me show you how we are doing as we don’t just provide info we play too so yes, we put our money where our mouth is so you can trust our analysis and results thereafter.

Fan Duel Earnings:

  • Started with $100 deposit on January 16th, 2015.
  • Earnings through March 15th, 2015 are $2,307
  • Profit for the week of March 9th was a total of $449.50 as we have looked to increase our overall number of entries and entry fee contests to validate results on all levels of players.

Fan Duel Top Tournament Results:

  • Check back tomorrow as we post results from Tuesday through Friday!


DraftKings Earnings:

  • Started with a $50 deposit on February 15th, 2015.
  • Earnings through March 15th, 2015 are $533.57
  • Profit for the week of March 9th was $69.42

Results from Draftkings 

  • Check back tomorrow as we post results from Tuesday through Friday

Games to Play Tonight


Just click on the one of the links above and you will be directed to these contests and you can start making a profit.

Dregs of Madness

We’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad…You must be, or you wouldn’t have come here.

The Cheshire Cat – Alice In Wonderland, Lewis Carroll

Strike 1

The Madness descends like the blanket of night in the forest of basketball, haunted by the headless-horseman.  You can always count on the bloviating rancor of DickieV chastising the committee for this snub or that snub – it’s buffoonery, a jester’s errand.  When will the Emperor Vitale shows us his new clothes and give us a taste of the teams he would select?  This is and will always be the problem and proof #1 why college football should never expand the playoff.  Who really cares about teams that barely qualified in a field of 68.  If you could not separate yourself, or win your conference tournament among the chosen 68 teams, then you have no beef.  It mirrors the hall of fame argument – you either are, or you are not – if it has to be debated – you are not a hall of famer.

Of course it’s not like there aren’t some head scratchers.  Temple did beat Kansas and has fewer bad losses than darling UCLA, who lost to ‘Bama, CU and Arizona St – and also got brazilian-waxed by OU, UNC, Gonzaga and Kentucky.  Temple did play Duke and Villanova, but let’s compare the best win – UCLA beat 5th seed Utah and Temple beat 2nd seed Kansas – by 25!  While Vitale is outraged at Murray St he forgets CSU who is a top 30 RPI team – what else did CSU need to do, to prove they are better than “Yook-la.” CSU, could actually be the first team in history to be a top 30 team, have 5 wins against the top 100, and not make the dance – not even the ridiculous play in game.  UCLA, clearly is a ratings bump and Vitale will not talk about teams that are in, just who is not – why do they keep giving airtime to this clown.

Another team DickieV should have discussed is Georgetown.  How are they a #4?!  Is the committee really saying the Hoyas are a top 16 team by seeding?  They were swept by Providence and Xavier – then in the Big East tournament they squeeked by last place Creighton, only to be whooped again by the Musketeers.  For proof, look at another #4 seed UNC and the run they had – Georgetown is as good as UNC?

…and when are we going to stop playing championship games on Sunday?  Everyone should play their championship games on Saturday.  It would give the illusion that the committee actually is reviewing, contemplating, and revising their seedings; further guaranteeing all teams to have a certain amount of rest before the dancing starts.  I know, it’s not easy – but I’m still waiting for the #16seed upset that statistically happens once every 1,747 yrs or so and the way the committee decides things – it will happen soon, further questioning their integrity by the ghost of Vitale, who will be long gone with his faux outrage.


Strike 2

Are you Shveding me?

remember this?

well either Alexey Shved is some kind of basketball-savant or he just plays like a seredipitous kid on the court – because – this – just – happened!

 

…and 1? C’mon man!

Strike 3

Nothing like a little British perspective to quench our thirst….

no time to watch it all – skip to 18:30


 

Today, we will be working on the bracket-ology and provide you that info later today – so look for it.

here is who we are going with for the play-in games, that no one cares about, outside of these schools’ alumni – the winners are…