DiRTy Plays Hot Hands Thursday

westbrook

March 12th, 2015

Our Hot Hands for this past week can be compared to that of the NBA MVP race.  It has been amazing to watch, night after night, five guys who have put it all on the table and gone all in as we come down the home stretch to the NBA playoffs.  The hottest guy in the NBA has been Russell Westbrook for about the last month or so, putting up ridiculous numbers.  Westbrook averaged 30 points, 10 rebounds and 9 assist dating back to January 24th of this season.  In his last 7 games, he has 6 Triple-Doubles and going into last night that had barely held off the Pelicans from taking over the 8th seed in the Western Conference.  Unfortunately for Westbrook he has had such great success at playing on a rage against the machine, he now feels that he must take over every game in order to secure victory.  While he fills the stat sheet, including the turnover category, one thing to make note of is OKC’s record when Westbrook goes for a Triple-Double.   It is .500 and so does this really mean he is an MVP.  I say absolutely not and last night’s performance against an underrated defense in the L.A. Clippers, Westbrook almost had another Triple-Double only this time he had 10 turnovers to go with his 9 rebounds and 22 points.  The Clippers came in and put a beat down on OKC and proved to the West that they are a legitimate contender and so long as OKC is without the real MVP, Durant, all they are is the 8th seed with a guy who has a high motor and fills up the stat sheet.  When Kevin Love was doing that last year, he wasn’t considered to be in the MVP race, he was vilified for not winning.  Are we simply too afraid of Westbrook to put these same parameters and connotations behind his play or is it just we are so enamored with his athleticism that we cannot fathom that OKC still might not make the playoffs with kevindurant_mvpDurant continuing to be sidelined.  However, for your daily fantasy value, it’s tough to not have him start for you.  We have found that so long as his cost is at $12,100 or less he should be on your team, anything above that you are going to sacrifice your profit in those contests.

 

Next to crack our weekly list is LeBron James.  Yes, once again he makes the Hot Hand category and it doesn’t come without criticism.  It wasn’t until earlier this week, I heard someone from ESPN finally put LeBron James in the MVP race.  I guess I too hadn’t put him in there until recently but then I listened to the actual statement made and in that soliloquy and come to realize that LeBron James is always the MVP but it is human nature to search for the next great star.  I mean look at how many TV shows are out there to find the top chef, the top child chef, the next country singer star, the next dance team, then next guy who can ride a bike with no hands.  As Chris Carter brought to television C’Mon man, all this man does is put up 26 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists per game.  James has officially taken over the Cavs all-time lead in assists and he is a small forward?!  In terms of his fantasy value he is #3 over the past 10 games and had he played in the 4th quarter of most of his last few games, he might be #1.  The only issue you have with James these days is that the Cavs are blowing teams out so bad that he doesn’t need to play down the stretch or even through long stretches in the middle of the game.  Keep him on your radar and on your lineup so long as his cost remains hovering around $11,000 on Fan Duel and $10,500 on DraftKings.


Third on this list is Anthony Davis.  Yes, “The Brow”, has been simply dominating since coming back from his shoulder injury.  He has put up some huge numbers going for over 40 earlier this week in a comeback win over the Nets.  The Pelicans are flying high right now and are looking to make a run down the stretch to sneak past OKC and get into the playoffs for the first time in years.  Anthony Davis carries this team on both sides of the court and even with Tyreke Evans going down this week, you didn’t see that change their success.  In terms of fantasy value, Davis is #2 overall and comes in averaging just over 54 Fan Duel points per game and 58 points on DraftKings.  His magic number in terms of salary value is $11,200.  If he is at or under this marker, take him and watch your team cash.  $5 might not make you holla but if you play 15 contests per day, follow our analysis and recommendations, you will cash in 12 of those contests and profit right around $60 at a minimum.  The good news is you get to do this while drinking beer and watching games with your nba playoffsbuddies, in the, what used to be an office area, now turned sports gaming arena.

  • 1st Golden State
  • 2nd Memphis
  • 3rd Portland
  • 4th Houston
  • 5th LA Clippers
  • 6th San Antonio
  • 7th Dallas
  • 8th OKC
  • 9th New Orleans
  • 10th Phoenix 

Number 4 for the week is Kawhi Leonard.  This young, budding superstar is tearing it up right now.  He has posted 20+ points and 10+ rebounds in 4 of his last 5 games.  The Spurs started off with a 4 games losing streak on their rodeo road trip but have since reeled off 5 straight victories and are about to surpass the Mavs for the 6th seed in the West.  Kawhi has been the leading candidate for this progress.  In terms of fantasy value, Leonard, has posted at least 45 fantasy points in all 5 contests and will continue to do so as long as Pop doesn’t feel he needs a rest.  This team is so difficult to read in terms of fantasy leagues and can be compared to the Patriots of the NFL.  You never know who is going to go off.  Their bench guys might have Mills hitting for 20, Ginobli the next night for 25, Belinelli for 18 on six three’s and so and so forth.  There are two guys to consider over the next week and those are Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard.  This combination is like Brady and Gronkowski, you can kawhi_champscount on them and the rest it’s a huge hit or miss.  Since I use math to make our decisions for us, the math says stay away from everyone else and stick with these two, they will each get you 40+ fantasy points per night over the next week’s set of games.

Last but certainly not least for this week’s Hot Hands we bring you DeAndre Jordan.  I know what you are going to say; “Where is James Harden”?  Others will say, “Where is Steph Curry”?  The reality of the situation is that, I project NBA daily fantasy value and not the best players in the game today.  I am not writing to tell you who Captain Obvious would put down here.  I crunch numbers and provide you with expected outcomes to predict the likelihood of success for your daily fantasy contests.  So why is Jordan on this list this week?  It is because he is a rebounding machine on a consistent basis.  He now has 13 consecutive games with at least 14 rebounds and in 12 of these games he had 15 or more.  In 4 of them he had more than 20 rebounds in a game.  Combine that with the fact that he is on the court more than 80% of the game, which happens to be the most in the NBA over this stretch and he is shooting 72% from the floor right now.  He might not be able to hit 50% from the free throw line but when you get 15 chances per game, you get 7 free points.  He will get 2 to 3 dunks per game and most likely will go for 16 points and 16 rebounds.  From a stats perspective, this is tremendous, Jordan doesn’t turn the ball over and is number 5 in block shots over this stretch.  The best news is that Fan Duel and DraftKings haven’t seemed to change his salary.  Their algorithms haven’t picked up on this just yet but he is going to be a 45 on your team each and every night and is usually right around $9,500.  If you want to win like we do, then you have to look at the value of that player, the percentage of your overall spend and the production you will get for him.


It’s nice that we are able to provide you with Sleepers to consider each night but the true strategy in this game is how do you keep the consistent top performers and find those mid-level guys that are going to have huge nights.  We have added a segment for just this reason.  This week I will be providing you with some insight into why our Lineups To Consider have players that we don’t discuss or provide additional stats for so you can continue to win and win big.  We will have a lineup creation tool available next week in preparation for the final weeks of the NBA season as we look to roll into baseball season next.  Stay tuned for our bracket analysis as we look to apply our basketball analysis in order to predict the results of the NCAA tournament.  Look for additional information over the coming days and Monday next week we will focus heavily on how to help you win.  Follow us on Twitter @TheDiRTCanon and get our daily news as well as progress throughout all the daily NBA games each night.


Be sure you check out the DiRTy Plays – Week of March 9th to get all the Must Haves and Sleepers for today’s best players with their projections.  We have also put up some lineups to consider for tonight’s games.  You can click here to be taken directly to this information.

 

Fan Duel Earnings:

  • Started with $100 deposit on January 16th, 2015.
  • Earnings through March 11th, 2015 are $2,427
  • Profit from the week of March 9ththus far is a total of $259.50 as we have looked to increase our overall number of entries and entry fee contests to validate results on all levels of players.

Fan Duel Top Tournament Results from March 11th:

  • Money_Sign250.8 (452 of 2873) – $1 Entry/$2.50 Won (Late Night Contest)
  • 249.5 (498 of 2873) – $1 Entry/$2.50 Won (Late Night Contest)
  • 288.4 (525 of 13793) – $1 Entry/$4 Won (After Hours Contest)
  • 286.2 (31 of 191) – $25 Entry/$125 Won (Quintuple Up)
  • 284 (2515 of 16091) – $25 Entry/$50 Won (Super Slam)

***Won $184 gross, spent $65 and profited $119***

DraftKings Earnings:

  • Started with a $50 deposit on February 15th, 2015.
  • Earnings through March 11th, 2015 are $494.40
  • Profit for the week of March 9ththus far is $30.25


Results from March 11th, 2015

  • 75 (466 of 36907) – $3 Entry/$12 Won (Sharpshooter Contest)
  • 4 (2682 of 14100) – $0.25 Entry/$1.25 Won (Quarter Arcade)

***Won $13.25 gross, spent $3.25 and profited $10***

Games to Play Tonight

Just click on the one of the links above and you will be directed to these contests and you can start making a profit.