|Ravens||@||Patriots||01/10 04:35 PM||NBC||16f Clear||8m WSW|
NE -7 (47.5)
The Patriots are not the dynasty you remember, or hate, but they may be the best team in the AFC. In their last 9 playoff games since 2008 they are a Peyton-esque 4-5. Tom Brady has .444 winning percentage since 2008. In the last three times they have met – Tom is 1-2 against the Ravens – could be 0-3 if someone could catch. They have had O-line issues all year and now the Ravens come into town with the league’s best sack%, of 9.4. Joe Flacco, in his last 4 playoff games has thrown 13 TD to 0 INT’s. Flacco has 7 post season road wins, most all time, and the 6th highest winning % (.714) in the playoffs with a minimum of 10 starts. So it says. Expect a good, tough game. Expect some points to be scored, because Baltimore may have the league’s best sack%, but their secondary is terrible. More than 40% of the time New England lines up with 2 TE’s, so who is going to cover Tim Wright AND Gronk for the Ravens? The key to both will be who runs the ball better and which D covers the TE’s best – either way it sets up for a Manning v Brady AFC title game XXV. Plus, let’s look at the actual wins the Ravens have against: the entire NFC South, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Tennessee – it says to me, Paper-Tiger. The A.I. says the Patriots win but do not cover and believes the OVER is the right side. If you want to play straight up, I lean towards the Ravens…if you want to get crazy, I would tease the Ravens and tease the OVER.
FanDuel consideration: Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett, Tim Wright, K.Aiken, J.Edelman
Vegas consideration: tease Ravens and the OVER
DiRT Canon A.I. says: Patriots by 2.6 and the OVER
|Panthers||@||Seahawks||01/10 08:15 PM||FOX||44f Overcast||1m S|
SEA -10.5 (40)
Beware the Panthers D they say! That is what we have seen the last 5 weeks and if (s)Cam Newton is anything like his rookie season this could get ugly for Seattle and their hope for a repeat. In 5 of the last 7 games Seattle has failed to score 20 points. Who does Russell Wilson throw to against that D, and besides Marshawn Lynch what kind of offense can we expect. If you have been reading this site for awhile you would have witnessed that we projected a Panther victory previous to this matchup, and you’re getting 10.5pts on top of it- that’s a sweet cherry.
The last two times these two have played they have been close but, the Kitties have 1 TD in the redzone in their last 6 attempts. Plus, this will be the FIRST time that Carolina has played IN Seattle. (s)Cam Newton is a bust that continues to devolve and without Defensive Tackle Lotulelei for Carolina, expect Marshawn to do what he do in the Great Northwest – skittle-chasin-beast-mode! Seattle also gets back 2-time all-pro C Max Unger. Factor in the East-coast -to the- West-coast trend, add to it, a night game IN Seattle and more importantly this: since 2000, non-home underdogs of 10+pts or more, are 4-7 ATS (1-7 if you remove the 2007 Patriots) and since 2007, the Seahawks are 31-12 ATS at home. The A.I. says the Seahawks win but do not cover; however, I’ll take Seattle straight up. I believe this will not be close and the right play is all on Seattle – as I trust Russell, Skittles and big game Pete, more than anything the Kitties have – Kuechly is a man, but will not be enough.
FanDuel consideration: Marshawn Lynch, Doug Baldwin
Vegas consideration: Seattle +10.5, tease the UNDER
DiRT Canon A.I. says: Seattle by 5 and the OVER
|Cowboys||@||Packers||01/11 01:05 PM||FOX||17f Overcast||7m W|
GB -5.5 (52)
Both the UNDER and the LINE have dropped since opening at 53 and GB -6. It’s a battle of unbeaten streaks: GB is 8-0 at home and Dallas is 8-0 on the road – something’s gotta give. This is also the first time Dallas has met Green Bay, in Lambeau, in the playoffs, since 1967’s Ice Bowl where the Packers defeated the Cowboys 21-17. The weather does not expect to be the same but the score could be. Aaron Rodgers is a remarkable 36 TD to 0 INT’s at home and their Defense since wk9, has only allowed 2 RB’s to gain more than 60yds, (LeSean McCoy and Fred Jackson). However, DeMarco and the Cowboy O-line are more than willing to challenge that #6-ranked Packer D. If the Packers do shutdown or limit DeMarco, Dallas is more than capable to throw it with Romo, Dez, and Witten. In comparison to when Dallas throws the ball, consider this: the Packers D allows an average of 22 completions at home. 1.9 TD’s thrown, but averages 1.8 takeaways a game, at home. Rodgers has a slight-tear in his calf and that’s gonna limit him scrambling, but it does not limit his lethality within the pocket. The Cowboys have the #22-ranked D and the difference from last years D to this years D is the success of the offense controlling the clock and giving those guys rest. The Cowboys still give up first-downs at a rate of 43%. Both teams’ last game was against Detroit, so…Dallas escaped scoring 24pts, Green Bay ran up 30pts at home while also holding Detroit to 20pts. So where do we go? Do we trust Roddgers with a bad wheel over Romo? Is Jordy and Cobb more dangerous than Dez and Witten? who has a better day running the ball, Lacy or Murray? The A.I. says this game is really close and that there is greater value in Dallas than with Green Bay. There is something about Dallas this year that has me taking the Cowboys against Aaron Rodgers – or maybe its the good luck of C.Christie’s awful-orange sweater.
FanDuel consideration: Tony Romo, Eddie Lacy, Dez, Witten, Cobb, R.Rodgers
Vegas consideration: Cowboys +5.5, tease the OVER
DiRT Canon A.I. says: Green Bay by .23, and the OVER
|Colts||@||Broncos||01/11 04:40 PM||CBS||40f Overcast||2m E|
DEN -7 (53.5)
This should be named the Legacy-Bowl because both QB’s have so much riding on this game. If Luck loses, you’ll here how much talent he has but struggles against good teams and winning on the road, (14-12). With a loss, it will not matter, to many, that Andrew Luck has a terrible offensive line and the Colts have not had ANY RB rush for 100yds, in ANY game since 2012 – that’s KC WR bad. Now imagine the fallout, if the greatest-regular-season-QB-of-all-time choked away another 1st-round-bye-home-playoff-loss. The pressure has to be immense each week for Peyton, until he WINS another title. The positive is, aside from Peyton’s recent wet-noodle-ness throwing the ball, the pressure is dispersed amongst the newly found ground game and #2 D. CJ Anderson has 8 TD’s in his last 6 games and it reminds me of the last years of John Elway finally giving the keys to Terrell Davis – not saying it IS the same thing – just saying maybe Peyton has finally loosened his control and allowed other guys to help him win. You read/here, that Peyton’s teammates want the pressure dispersed and want to win FOR him, much like they did for Elway. Denver’s D has only allowed a league best 25.76 yds per drive, so with no-one to run the ball for the Colts, Luck is gonna have to chuck it. I see this as a repeat of week 1 with a likely back-door cover by the Colts. I do not like this game very much because the line is a bit high with all the what-ifs, but I would lean on teasing Denver and teasing the over. The A.I. says Denver wins the game, but close.
FanDuel consideration: Luck, CJ Anderson, Julius Thomas!, D.Moncrief
Vegas consideration: tease Denver and tease the OVER
DiRT Canon A.I. says: Denver by 1.38 and the OVER
So here is your 8-team TEASER bet +8.5 ties win: Denver(+1.5) and the OVER(45), Dallas(+14) and the OVER(43.5), Seattle(-2) and the UNDER(48.5), Baltimore(+15.5) and the OVER(39).
Here is last week’s perfect lineup for FanDuel:
For multiple lineup combinations in FanDuel consider using these low-cost guys: Julius Thomas is only $5,500
Green Bay D