|Patriots||@||Seahawks||02/01 06:30 PM||NBC||DOME||4m WSW|
As Frodo readies himself to throw the ring into the Lake o’Fire of this NFL season – we’ve got one more chance to end the season on a high note and brother its gonna be goood. The DiRT Canon Bunker provides a respite to wax poetic, but it is in the DiRT Canon Safehouse that legacy will be witnessed this Sunday. So on with the show…
Things I cannot put anywhere else…
- The New England Patriots are just 1-5-1 ATS in their previous seven Super Bowl
- New England is also just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 playoff games
- The Patriots are 6-2 both SU and ATS in their last eight games against NFC teams, but specifically just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams from the NFC West division
- Seattle, meanwhile, is 4-2-1 ATS in its last seven playoff games
- The Seahawks are 6-1 SU in their last seven playoff games, including their win in last year’s Super Bowl.
- Overall, underdogs have been a great Super Bowl bet over the past 13 seasons, going 10-3 ATS. Underdogs have won outright the past three games and five of seven
- The Seahawks hold the 6-2 edge both SU and ATS in their last eight games against the Patriots, and they’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams from the AFC East division. Seattle is also 10-4 SU in its last 14 games against AFC teams overall. In the Super Bowl, NFC teams are on a 6-1 ATS run.
- For totals bettors, the OVER is 3-0 in the last three games between the Patriots and the Seahawks, and 12-3 in Seattle’s last 15 games against AFC teams. The OVER is also 5-1 in New England’s last six games against teams from the NFC West division.
- Favorites have lost three straight Super Bowls and five of the last seven overall. If the line stays under three points it’ll be just the third time since 1980 that the Super Bowl spread was that small – it was Denver -2 vs. Seattle last year, and New England -2.5 vs. the Giants three years ago.
- Underdogs have covered the spread in five of the last six Super Bowls, winning four of six outright. The Baltimore Ravens, New Orleans Saints, and New York Giants have pulled off straight-up Super Bowl upsets
- The Green Bay Packers in 2011 are the only favorites to win and cover since 2007, when Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts won and covered in a 29-17 win over the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI
- Seahawks 19-4-1 ATS as underdogs since September 18, 2011
Seahawks 8-0 SU last 8 games (6-1-1 ATS), also 7-4-1 ATS past 12 overall
Seahawks 6-1 ATS last 7 games vs. AFC East
Seahawks 6-1 SU last 7 playoff games
Seahawks 4-2-1 ATS last 7 playoff games
Seahawks 6-2 SU & ATS last 8 meetings with Patriots
Seahawks 10-4 SU last 14 games vs. AFC (1-8 SU previous 9)
Seahawks 2-5 ATS last 7 games vs. AFC
Patriots 1-5-1 ATS in 7 previous Super Bowl appearances (3-4 SU)
Patriots 6-2 SU & ATS last 8 games vs. NFC
Patriots 1-3 SU last 4 games vs. NFC West (11-0 SU previous 11)
Patriots 2-5 ATS last 7 games vs. NFC West (11-0 ATS previous 11)
Patriots 5-10 ATS last 15 playoff games (8-7 SU)
OVER 3-0 in last 3 meetings (UNDER 3-0 previous 3)
OVER 13-3 in Seattle’s last 16 games vs. AFC East
OVER 12-3 in Seattle’s last 15 games vs. AFC
OVER 5-1 in New England’s last 6 games vs. NFC West
UNDER 4-1 in New England’s last 5 games vs. NFC
UNDER 5-1 in New England’s last 6 playoff games as underdogs
- Tom Brady has never lost a playoff game throwing 30 or more passes
- J.Kearse has scored at least 1TD in 4 straight playoff games
- Edelman has double-digit targets in his last 6 games
- Before INDY, NE has allowed and avg of 114.7yds/game on the ground
- Seattle has not allowed more than 54yds to a TE since week 9
- Russell Wilson has never lost a game by double digits
- Since 1996, a team that scored 40+ points, is 3-22 ATS the following game – the last team that scored 40+ points before NE, was NE last year and lost to Denver in the AFC Championship.
So what does it all mean?! It means that this a classic battle on paper. It means that we all believe that Pete knows what Bill wants to do to stop his team and that Bill knows that Pete knows, so where’s the poison? You have to wonder what kind of impact the distractions of the recent Patriot-gate, Tom’s cold and the Hernandez trial beginning has on this team – but I remind myself of 2004 when Tom Brady was being asked to help stump for politicos days before the game and he still won – so maybe this team embraces the chaos.
If we play the “who do you trust” game – you trust the Patriot way of removing your strength, you trust their preparation and you trust that they will attack Marshawn Lynch and contain Russell from getting outside of the pocket, where he is lethal. You trust the secondary of the Patriots over the Seattle WR’s. But Browner needs help because he gives up a 92.6 QBR for the year, so someone on the slot or TE should be open.
If we trust/believe that the Legion of Boom will have to make more plays than they did last year because of the desire the Patriots have to be in 2 TE formations – who do you stop? We trust that the right tackle for the Seahawks is the weak spot in the chain and expect the Patriots to stunt and twist to generate pressure without the blitz. We trust that unless NE can establish and consistently run the ball, it could get difficult to score touchdowns.
So miscellaneous players might be the key players in determining the outcome. The DiRT Canon A.I. says that if it is an offensive game, then the Patriots win by 4. If it is a defensive battle then the Seahawks win by 2. The Final outcome for the A.I. says Patriots 23, Seahawks 22. The A.I. also predicts Tom throws for 3TD’s and 295 yds. So for the A.I. its a push and too take the OVER.
But for me it seems like this game matches up like other games in the past. Think the Steelers and Cowboys of Superbowl X and Superbowl XIII, where the Seahwaks are the Cowboys and the Patriots are the Steelers – you can see the similarity and possible similar outcome. But it also shapes up like the Panthers v Patriots – it could easily be where neither teams scores very often and then BAM! But to me it seems more like Superbowl XXV with the Bills and the Giants. If the game acts like that classic and if the Seahawks maintain the T.O.P. advantage (like the Giants did), you could expect a Seahawk victory. Is it me or does this seems a lot like last years Superbowl where the Patriots come in hot, blowin out an average team and the Seahawks struggling to actually make the dance – at some point the luck has to run out right? But consider this: what if the NE and SEA switched opponents to get to the Superbowl – would you feel differently? Would you not believe that Seattle would erase INDY? Would NE escape Green Bay? So are we really dealing with wild perceptions?
After going back and forth, reading tidbit after tidbit; I am gonna tease the Seahawks and tease the OVER in this game and I lean the Seahawks winning this game for these reasons…77% of the public is on NE and that is always dangerous to be on the side of the public…Who looks better as the champion, Seattle or New England? Both have their own legacies at stake, but NE’s recent past stands out…Tom winning is the better story, but the Patriots winning is the worst event for Hizzoner and his continued ineffectiveness…We all need a villain, but the Tidal-charts say Seattle is the right play, besides when has NE beaten anyone by more than 3pts…The guy in charge of the DiRT Canon Safehouse believes in a blowout by the Patriots 40-20…we’ll see, but these prop bets seem like a better place to wager your fresh lettuce:
How many times will the announcers mention any form of the word deflate between the singing of the national anthem and end of the game?
4 or more -150
What hair color will Katy Perry have to open her first song?
Purple/ Blue +250
Which song will Katy Perry begin her set?
I Kissed a Girl -120
California Gurls +300
Dark Horse +500
None of these +150
Will Katy Perry and Lenny Kravitz kiss on the lips?
No – 500
What product will be the first to air after the first play of the first quarter?
Budweiser/Bud Light -120
Turbo Tax +650
None of these -200
Will Patriots’ head coach Bill Belichick be caught smiling on camera during the game?
Will Marshawn Lynch grab his crotch after scoring a touchdown?
Will the camera catch Tom Brady and Bill Belichick hugging after the game?
No – 700
Odds on Oddities
Fan streaking +3500
Goal posts fall down +3000
The power goes out +4000
Katy Perry’s nipple gets exposed +4000
Lenny Kravitz shows his junk (penis) +5000
Game goes into overtime +800