Clear as Mud

Week 16 in review – FanDuel

How did your lineup compare to the perfect lineup?  Matt Musico from FanDuel breaks it down.

fanduel-nfl-week-16-perfect-lineup

65% — Percentage of players in the top 20 owned who scored at least 11 points

When looking at the highest-owned players, most owners roster these guys for certain reasons. Either they’re on a ridiculous hot streak, the matchup is favorable or an injury to another player has cleared the way to make a big impact. The faith some FanDuelers put into these players doesn’t always end up with a huge performance at the end of the day, but 13 players finished in double digits this week.

These included Marques Colston (11), Jonathan Stewart (19.9), Fred Jackson (14.8), Matt Bryant (15), Drew Brees (13.32), Le’Veon Bell (13.7), Calvin Johnson (13.3), Rob Gronkowski (12.1), Joique Bell (15.7), Dez Bryant (15.8), C.J. Anderson (23.8), Tre Mason (14.8) and Jordy Nelson (21.8). Those owning some of these players wouldn’t consider their production very good, but at least they didn’t sink into the single digits, right?

4 — Number of Not-So-Perfect-Lineup players owned by at least 20% of FanDuelers

Nobody wants to see players from their fantasy team end up in the Not-So-Perfect-Lineup, but it happens. One of the qualifications for this exclusive club is being owned by at least 10% of FanDuelers. However, there were four players in this unfortunate lineup with over 20% ownership. They included Matthew Stafford (32.5%), Donte Moncrief (22.4%), Shayne Graham (21.6%) and the Bills defense (37.5%).

Going up against the hapless Chicago Bears defense, many thought Stafford would go off, especially with all the offensive weapons around him. Well, he only scored 7.92 points on Sunday. Despite throwing up a goose egg in Week 15, Moncrief was anticipated to have a huge game with T.Y. Hilton out, not the 1.5 points he produced.

With Drew Brees running the show against a bad Falcons defense, Shayne Graham would kick the ball through the uprights a lot, right? Nope — he scored just two points. Finally, the Bills defense was fresh off a huge win against the Green Bay Packers and completely shutting down Aaron Rodgers. They were going to feast on the Oakland Raiders, but finished the game with just one fantasy point and a loss in real life. Woof.

30.8 — Number of points Odell Beckham, Jr. has averaged over the last three weeks

Although he missed the season’s first four weeks with hamstring issues, Odell Beckham, Jr. has made up for lost time and should be considered a favorite to walk away with Rookie of the Year honors. He was at it again on Sunday against the St. Louis Rams, pulling in eight catches for 148 yards and two touchdowns. He’s been great all season, but OBJ has been producing at an insane level over the past three weeks. He’s caught 31 passes for 421 yards and six scores during that span. His $9,000 price tag was expensive, but it was worth it.

1 — Number of tight ends who cracked the list of top 20 scorers

Seattle Seahawks tight end Luke Willson was owned by just 0.1% of FanDuelers. I’d like to know why they rostered him because they look like geniuses after he caught three passes for 139 yards and two touchdowns. He scored a surprising 27.4 points on Sunday night — not only the highest for any TE in Week 16, but good enough to crack the list of top 20 scorers.

And talking about finding some value, rostering Willson would’ve only taken $4,500. The only other option on this top scorers list at that price was the Falcons defense.

$14,100 — Cost to roster both C.J. Anderson and Lamar Miller

If we asked you back in September which two running backs would be in the Week 16 Perfect Lineup, nobody would’ve answered C.J. Anderson and Lamar Miller. Why? Because neither RB was their team’s starter heading into Week 1. Both have taken advantage of the opportunities given to them, becoming consistent fantasy producers every Sunday.

Anderson’s price tag was at $7,800, but he produced 23.8 fantasy points by rushing for 83 yards and a touchdown to go with eight catches for another 55 yards. Miller was much cheaper ($6,300), but ended up with virtually the same number of points (23.5) by rushing for 92 yards and a touchdown, while adding five receptions for 58 yards.

1.36 — The point difference between Russell Wilson and the entire Not-So-Perfect-Lineup

It’s always fun to see how some of the week’s top scorers stack up against the Not-So-Perfect-Lineup. This week’s group of disappointing players posted an uninspiring 37.72 points. While no one player outscored them this time around, Seahawks QB Russell Wilson came awfully close. He completed 20-of-31 passes for 339 yards and two touchdowns, adding another 88 yards and a score with his legs for a total score of 36.36 fantasy points.

15% — Percentage of top 20 scorers that were either a tight end, kicker or defense

The top 20 scorers list is normally dominated by high-profile skill positions like quarterback, running back and wide receiver, but some other positions find their way in on occasion. This week, three players made an appearance: tight end Luke Willson, kicker Randy Bullock and the Falcons defense.

We already talked about Willson’s 27.4-point outburst for the 0.1% that owned him, but the other two were just as surprising. Bullock basically beat the Ravens by himself — the kicker scored 19 fantasy points thanks to one successful extra point and six made field goals. Only 0.8% of FanDuelers had him on a roster.

Meanwhile, the Falcons scored 20 points on the defensive front thanks to collecting five sacks, two interceptions and three forced fumbles. Just 1.6% of owners spent the $4,500 to roster them.

5 — Number of Lions players in the top 20 owned

As mentioned before, a lot of fantasy players figured the Lions would completely embarrass the Bears. After all, Chicago’s defense is awful, while the Lions have a great defense and were facing QB Jimmy Clausen. The confidence in Detroit was displayed through the ownership numbers for Stafford (32.5%), Joique Bell (29.1%), Calvin Johnson (26.7%), Golden Tate (25.4%) and the Lions defense (22.9%).

Detroit did walk away with a victory and a playoff berth, but it wasn’t nearly as easy as many anticipated. Out of these five players, only Megatron (13.3) and Bell (15.7) scored in double figures. Stafford had the distinction of being the highest-owned of the group, but was also the lowest scorer (7.92).

66% — Percentage of the Perfect Lineup with less than 10% ownership

The members of the Perfect Lineup from each week is a combination of players we’re not surprised to see and others we’re completely shocked about. Judging from the ownership numbers from Week 16′s group, not a lot of FanDuelers were expecting two-thirds of the lineup to have big games.

The six players that played great while being owned in less than 10% of contests include Russell Wilson (3%), Rueben Randle (1.1%), Emmanuel Sanders (5.8%), Luke Willson (0.1%), Randy Bullock (0.8%) and the Falcons defense (1.6%).

Of the top performers we haven’t talked about yet, Randle scored 22.2 points despite another monster game from OBJ. With 37 points scored by the Giants, there was plenty to go around, and the WR caught all six of his targets for 132 yards and one touchdown. Sanders has been playing at a Pro Bowl level in 2014, but not many expected a big game from him this week. They were mistaken because he scored 22 points off the strength of six catches for 70 yards and two touchdowns.

$1,903 — Average TE savings for FanDuelers if they rostered Luke Willson

When it comes to spending money on tight ends, FanDuelers don’t usually shell out a lot of money — unless it’s for a top-tier guy like Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham or Julius Thomas. The average percentage of the salary cap spent on this position was 11%, less than the QB, both RBs and WR1 and WR2. That cost comes out to $6,403. If you made the bold move of rostering Willson, it would’ve saved you $1,903 to spend elsewhere, while also getting the best-performing tight end of the week.