It’s beginning to look a lot like…$$$
Put together for your entertainment purposes only and to help you either win cash or the office pool – we have outlined what the opening line(Op.Line) is, the game-win-probability(GWP) for the confidence picks and where you should lean and the bet type. Usually I am in Vegas at this time making a nice christmas bonus for the year on these games – now I’m taking my talents online, so enjoy and start a discussion – good luck.
LEGEND:
Op.Line = opening line
GWP = probability of who wins the game outright
TR = team rating – several factors that delineate good teams from average or worse
Lean = the type and what to bet
x = the team to bet
t = you should tease the team – (typically a teased bet allows you to move 8.5pts to include in your entire bet)
o = consider the OVER
u = consider the UNDER
Example: Team A is marked with a “xtu” – it means its a slight lean on TeamA and if you bet, include it in a teaser bet – the u means that the expectation is for the game to go UNDER the total – you could tease both the UNDER and TeamA instead of separate.
|
Bowl Game |
Op.Line |
GWP |
TR |
Lean |
|
New Orleans |
||||
|
Nevada |
-1.5 |
90% |
2.069 |
xu |
|
Louisiana Lafayette |
10% |
1.673 |
||
|
New Mexico |
||||
|
UTEP |
10% |
-0.488 |
||
|
Utah State |
-11.5 |
90% |
-0.275 |
xtu |
|
Las Vegas |
||||
|
Utah |
-5 |
60% |
2.857 |
|
|
Colorado State |
40% |
2.592 |
xto |
|
|
Idaho Potato |
||||
|
Western Michigan |
-2.5 |
50% |
1.157 |
|
|
Air Force |
50% |
2.216 |
xto |
|
|
Camellia |
||||
|
South Alabama |
50% |
0.221 |
||
|
Bowling Green |
-1 |
50% |
1.435 |
xtu |
|
Miami Beach |
||||
|
BYU |
-1 |
40% |
1.89 |
|
|
Memphis |
60% |
3.955 |
xtu |
|
|
Boca Raton |
||||
|
Northern Illinois |
20% |
1.923 |
||
|
Marshall |
-11 |
80% |
2.658 |
xu |
|
Poinsettia |
||||
|
Navy |
70% |
1.096 |
||
|
San Diego State |
-1.5 |
30% |
1.726 |
xu |
|
Bahamas |
||||
|
Central Michigan |
30% |
-0.654 |
||
|
Western Kentucky |
-2.5 |
70% |
-0.152 |
xtu |
|
Hawaii |
||||
|
Fresno State |
-2 |
60% |
1.037 |
|
|
Rice |
40% |
0.644 |
xtu |
|
|
Heart of Dallas |
||||
|
Illinois |
30% |
1.073 |
||
|
Louisiana Tech |
-5 |
70% |
0.587 |
xo |
|
Quick Lane |
||||
|
Rutgers |
30% |
0.656 |
xto |
|
|
North Carolina |
-3.5 |
70% |
0.142 |
|
|
St.Petersburg |
||||
|
North Carolina State |
50% |
1.864 |
||
|
Central Florida |
-2.5 |
50% |
0.38 |
xtU |
|
Military |
||||
|
Virginia Tech |
80% |
-0.197 |
xt |
|
|
Cincinnati |
-4 |
20% |
2.771 |
|
|
Sun |
||||
|
Duke |
40% |
4.149 |
xt |
|
|
Arizona State |
-9 |
60% |
1.511 |
|
|
Independence |
||||
|
Miami |
60% |
0.345 |
||
|
South Carolina |
-1 |
40% |
2.706 |
xt |
|
Pinstripe |
||||
|
Penn State |
30% |
-1.493 |
xto |
|
|
Boston College |
-3 |
70% |
1.069 |
|
|
Holiday |
||||
|
Nebraska |
30% |
2.957 |
||
|
USC |
-6 |
70% |
1.283 |
xtu |
|
Liberty |
||||
|
West Virginia |
-3.5 |
70% |
0.588 |
|
|
Texas A&M |
30% |
1.966 |
xo |
|
|
Russell Athletic |
||||
|
Clemson |
50% |
-1.461 |
xt |
|
|
Oklahoma |
-3 |
50% |
2.396 |
|
|
Texas |
||||
|
Texas |
10% |
-1.999 |
||
|
Arkansas |
-5 |
90% |
0.28 |
xu |
|
Music City |
||||
|
Notre Dame |
30% |
1.279 |
||
|
LSU |
-7.5 |
70% |
1.675 |
xtu |
|
Belk |
||||
|
Louisville |
30% |
-0.245 |
xt |
|
|
Georgia |
-7 |
70% |
2.925 |
|
|
Foster Farms |
||||
|
Maryland |
20% |
3.381 |
||
|
Stanford |
-13 |
80% |
-0.164 |
xt |
|
Chick-fil-A Peach |
||||
|
Mississippi |
50% |
1.108 |
xt |
|
|
TCU |
-3 |
50% |
2.534 |
|
|
Fiesta |
||||
|
Boise State |
30% |
0.507 |
xt |
|
|
Arizona |
-4 |
70% |
0.532 |
|
|
Orange |
||||
|
Georgia Tech |
60% |
2.979 |
xt |
|
|
Mississippi State |
-7 |
40% |
1.064 |
|
|
Outback |
||||
|
Wisconsin |
30% |
0.421 |
||
|
Auburn |
-6.5 |
70% |
0.914 |
xt |
|
Cotton |
||||
|
Michigan State |
30% |
2.517 |
xt |
|
|
Baylor |
-2 |
70% |
2.087 |
|
|
Citrus |
||||
|
Minnesota |
40% |
2.62 |
||
|
Missouri |
-5.5 |
60% |
0.944 |
xt |
|
Rose |
||||
|
Florida State |
30% |
1.594 |
xt |
|
|
Oregon |
-8 |
70% |
3.012 |
|
|
Sugar |
||||
|
Ohio State |
30% |
2.299 |
||
|
Alabama |
-10 |
70% |
0.307 |
xt |
|
Armed Forces |
||||
|
Pittsburgh |
-2.5 |
80% |
1.65 |
xt |
|
Houston |
20% |
-0.064 |
||
|
Taxslayer |
||||
|
Iowa |
40% |
0.046 |
||
|
Tennessee |
-2.5 |
60% |
1.359 |
xt |
|
Alamo |
||||
|
UCLA |
70% |
1.796 |
xt |
|
|
Kansas State |
-1.5 |
30% |
3.952 |
|
|
Cactus |
||||
|
Oklahoma State |
20% |
2.378 |
||
|
Washington |
-5 |
80% |
1.568 |
xt |
|
Birmingham |
||||
|
East Carolina |
40% |
-0.527 |
xto |
|
|
Florida |
-8.5 |
60% |
1.141 |
|
|
Go Daddy.com |
||||
|
Toledo |
-2 |
60% |
2.078 |
|
|
Arkansas State |
40% |
1.001 |
xtu |
|
